Overvalued Dynasty "Sell High" Candidates

To win the championship in a dynasty fantasy football league, you have to call your shots. The best feeling in the world is when you trade for or draft a later round guy who ends up being a league winner.

The other side of the equation is knowing when to sell players while their perceived values are higher than what you expect to actually occur. Selling 26-27-year-old running backs and 30-31-year-old receivers to teams making the push for the title is intuitive, but no one wants to let go of their young studs.

These young players are highly valued in the eyes of the community, but may have lower career ceilings than people realize. Now is when you will receive peak benefit by placing these guys on the trade block before a decrease in value after a couple of potentially underwhelming seasons.

 

WR – Terry McLaurin

Terry McLaurin is a stud. I am not by any means saying that he is a worse receiver than his consensus in terms of talent. I am more concerned with both his short and long-term fantasy outlook. Let me explain.

This year he has Ryan Fitzpatrick as his starting quarterback. This is a massive upgrade from the Haskins experiment and the weak arm of Alex Smith from last year. This being said, Washington has made some tremendous roster improvements. Notably, they added William Jackson III to their secondary, first round pick Jamin Davis to their LB core, and Curtis Samuel to their offense.

The Washington defense is going to be incredible this year. It has top 1 potential, which means that they will not have to score as many points to win. Antonio Gibson is a remarkable back, and Washington’s recipe for winning will likely be running the ball and defense.

Now, teams with run heavy offenses still frequently have an elite WR. Just last year, the Titans with Derrick Henry had A.J. Brown, and the Vikings with Dalvin Cook had Justin Jefferson. Of course, these were bottom 10 defenses, but we have seen teams such as the Rams and Steelers supply solid wide receivers over the years while running the ball frequently and having stellar defenses.

What concerns me is that the teams who supported a top 12 wide receiver with low passing volume only really had one elite option. This is not an argument by any means that Curtis Samuel is a better wide receiver than McLaurin, but I believe that he is a solid and versatile receiver who will demand targets. Washington also has a lot of young depth in their wide receiver room, so the ball will likely be distributed more than most people believe.

An argument for McLaurin is that Fitzpatrick generally hyper-targets his number one option, but I am afraid that he will not as much this year due to their division. McLaurin played 40.8% of snaps at outside left receiver in 2020 (second most for context was left slot at 18.6%), and all three of their divisional opponents have a far superior CB1 than any of their CB2 options.

The Eagles have Darius Slay, who is significantly better at man than zone coverage, will likely attempt to strap McLaurin. While McLaurin could still fair well as a highly talented receiver, the other projected starting corners on the Eagles are Avonte Maddox (PFF grade of 37.8) on the outside, and Zech McPhearson (4^th round rookie) in the slot. The Eagles had the 31^st ranked CB group of 2020 (PFF) with Darius Slay playing overall decent football, which just highlights how bad the other options are in Philadelphia (who, by the way, did not make any significant CB free agent acquisitions). Take PFF grades for what you will, but Curtis Samuel should be open all day against Philadelphia.

The Giants have James Bradberry, who has proven himself elite. While the addition of Adoree’ Jackson will help, I would rather not throw the ball towards PFF’s 5^th ranked outside corner going into 2021. The Cowboys, on the other hand,  are not a scary defense. That being said, even Trevon Diggs is significantly better than Anthony Brown Jourdan Lewis, and rookie Kelvin Joseph.

Many teams have a more balanced groups of cornerbacks, such as Washington with Fuller and Jackson III on the outsides, but their NFC East opponents are unbalanced compared to the average defense in that regard. Over the first half of the season alone, McLaurin also will match up against Jaire Alexander, Marshon Lattimore, and Tre’Davious White.

Okay, I may have gone overboard with the matchups, but I do not see how McLaurin gets the target share necessary in a low volume passing offense to be a top 12 option this year without double digit touchdowns. I currently have him finishing as my WR19 (with Samuel finishing at WR33), which admittedly may be closer to his floor than his ceiling. I do not think that he will finish much higher than 19^th in 2021, but even if he does, let’s examine his future outlook.

When Fitzpatrick is gone, presumably next year, who is taking over? This is a good football team, so they are likely not going to get a top tier rookie. Are they going to trade, move up in the draft, or acquire another free agent? The future is uncertain, and I fail to see how Washington acquires someone as decent as Fitzpatrick without Heinicke taking a huge leap forward.

As a Terry McLaurin owner, you can sell for a lot right now because he is a young elite wide receiver. If you can get WR1 value for a guy who could easily perennially be a WR2, then I would sell high before the start of the season.

RB – JK Dobbins

Dobbins is an incredible runner, but he really is the RB2 behind Jackson on a team that will be able to pass more in 2021 than they could in 2020 with the additions of Watkins and Bateman.

I currently have Dobbins this season on a 17 game pace of 208 carries (up from 134 carries last year) for 1103 yards and 11 touchdowns, with 24 rec for 154 yards through the air. The rushing totals sound great, but even in half-PPR, that comes out to my RB22. (Note all players are statted for 17 game seasons even though very few will stay healthy. Only 2 of the top 25 RBs played all 16 games in 2020, which is why these numbers appear inflated.)

Baltimore just paid Gus Edwards $9,000,000 through 2023. Dobbins is a far superior pure runner, but Edwards will definitely take some carries.

After the bye week in 2020 when Dobbins received the majority of the work in the backfield, he averaged 12.1 carries and 0.78 receptions per game. These are not stellar numbers, especially in a PPR format.

As long as Dobbins is tied to Lamar Jackson, I do not see a path for him entering the elite tier. Jackson will surely be around at least five more years, and at that point, Dobbins will be on the decline.

People will pay up for Dobbins because most people believe that he has elite upside and is only 22 years old (younger than Najee Harris). His ADP in PPR formats is the RB16 in redraft leagues, and the RB10 in dynasty. In dynasty, that is ahead of young guys like Clyde, Najee, and Gibson. He is even ahead of Zeke, Aaron Jones, Joe Mixon, and Ekeler.

Selling a young RB with high perceived upside is scary, but he likely will not have the receiving work or Derrick Henry carry totals required to make him elite as long as Lamar Jackson is at the helm.

 

QB – Baker Mayfield

This one only really applies to SuperFlex leagues, but if someone will pay anything at all for Baker in a single QB league, take the deal.

This is not because Baker Mayfield is a bad quarterback by any means. I actually have him taking a step forward based on how he played over the second half of last season and finishing with a passer rating of just over 101 in 2021.

The reason you should sell Baker is because of the way the team is structured. The Browns are going to be incredible this year. They have debatably the best offensive line in the league, a solid defense, and two extraordinarily talented running backs. They will win games this year, but it will not be on the back of Mayfield.

Baker Mayfield is currently ranked my 24^th QB for 2021, but he is going in the mid-teens in 2QB dynasty startups (14-19 depending on format). This is in front of guys like Tannehill and Brady. I get that Baker is only 26, but a couple of potential top 10 years from these other guys is worth more than a career of finishing outside of the top 15. If you can trade him one for one for either of those two options, I would do it in a heartbeat.

This is likely going to be a low volume passing offense for the foreseeable future. While Baker may very well end up inside the top 20, he does not have the upside needed to help get your team to the championship.

 

TE – Logan Thomas

It feels odd including both McLaurin and his teammate, but Logan Thomas is the obvious selection here. He was “Mr. Necessary” last year with Alex Smith as the starting quarterback and no other reliable outside weapons. With the addition of Curtis Samuel and a surprisingly deep WR room, Thomas will not play nearly as big of a roll in the offense this year.

Currently ranked as my TE21 on the season, the 30-year-old tight end probably will not be more than stream-worthy for the rest of his career. In dynasty rankings, he is somehow ahead of Higbee, Trautman, and Everett. If you can trade Thomas for any one of these three younger guys with more upside, or even get a mid-to-late draft pick for him in any future year, I would sell now before it is too late.

 

Upshot

None of these guys are bad football players. If you have McLaurin and Dobbins on your roster, then you will probably have a decent season regardless.

Mayfield and Thomas will not yield you much capital, but you can get a haul for McLaurin and Dobbins. There is absolutely nothing wrong with holding on to either of these stars, but you can probably trade them for more than they are worth.

Fantasy football dynasty leagues are all about calling your shots and acquiring the best possible long-term team. If you believe that any of these guys are overvalued, then put them on your trade block. You may just be surprised with how much you can get in return.