2022 NFL Draft: Wide Receiver Deep Dive - Christian Watson

    

Christian Watson - North Dakota State

Overview:

Strengths:

1. Size - 6'5 and physical. Watson has the build of a prototypical X wide receiver.

2. Deep Route Adjustments - Adjusts deeper routes well to make up for poorly thrown balls. Deep separation is not spectacular, but he will make the most out of a situation once the ball is in the air.

3. Blocking - Very wiling to block. If he is taught better technique at the next level, he could become a very successful blocking receiver. He had an impressive block at the Senior Bowl that turned heads, and this can be seen throughout his tape as well.

Weaknesses:

1. Acceleration - Acceleration off of the line and on acute route breaks is poor. This is an area that needs to be improved if he ever is going to become a dominant receiver in the NFL.

2. Separation - Consistent separation at all levels is lacking. His body language when selling false routes is fantastic, but his lack of abrupt acceleration plays a large role in route running issues.

3. Change of Direction - Watson stops in his tracks extraordinarily well for someone of his size, but this does not translate into change of direction as much as it should. He either keeps his hips high, pivots too far away from his body, or stutters too much when doing a 180. Acceleration plays a role in this as well, but refining his footwork should help somewhat improve his change of direction immediately.

Grade: Mid-Late Third

Watson has outstanding physical tools, but simply lacks the fundamentals to be a first round prospect. He may thrive under a coach who knows how to develop receivers and maximize potential, but he is not ready to take on a major role upon entering the league.

Film:

Albany (09/04/2021): 4-37-0

Very quick pivots for size on curls, but does not drop hips. Clean break against off coverage. Good off the line, no false or drop step. Clean single step breaks and good separation across the middle. Drops target. Stutters mid route and gets a step across the middle, but poor acceleration out of stutter. Plays faster than his lesser competition, but should dominate harder given his excellent deceleration in combination with impressive stature.

Valparaiso (09/11/2021): 2-83-1

Good footwork laterally off the line to get inside quick to try and block. Jet sweep touchdown came from speed, not elusiveness. Slower acceleration off of the line. Little deep separation on the outside. Looks to be playing much slower overall in blowout game that is difficult to watch. Stopped watching at half after seeing him pulled to start the third quarter.

Towson (09/18/2021): 3-79-1

Slow first step off the line. Telegraphed comeback route went unrecognized by corner. Started leaning back to stop momentum instead of dropping his torso forward on first deceleration step leading to sloppy footwork. Runs past defenders for touchdown on a route that would have never worked against better competition. Clean curl route, but dropped the easy pass. Very small route tree.

Northern Iowa (10/09/2021): 5-163-1

Physical after the catch. Missed unimportant block on outside against a corner. Dropped pass. Found hole in zone. Slower off the line, even on vertical routes. Very slow route from release, to stutter, to 180 (seen below), but at least his footwork was efficient on both his release and change of direction. Excellent use of blockers on handoff. Decent one step cuts. Great block, but poor technique. Good lateral acceleration off the line. Good inside move to gain an immediate step. Most of his routes were rather unimpressive.

Illinois State (10/16/2021): 4-15-1

Poor lateral movement after the catch. Good deceleration. High throws generally slip through his fingers. Lacks meaningful suddenness at the line. Limited route tree.

Missouri State (10/23/2021): 4-106-1

Initial line moves do not lead to separation. Finds the hole behind the linebackers. Does not give routes away with head movement. Dropped a pass. Decent looking move to get deep off the line, but never built on that initial separation. Tracks the ball well downfield. Does not appear to have that extra gear once he is at top speed, which is overall quite mediocre for an NFL wide receiver prospect. Incredible contested catch down the sideline. Decent at using blockers, but is not a great YAC guy with only six missed tackles forced on the season. Great concentration in contested catch situations.

South Dakota (11/20/2021): 6-61-0 (+3-52-1 rushing)

Slow off the line. Good sideline awareness. Not much suddenness in routes. Physical. Great run showing good use of blockers and great contact balance. Does not give routes away with his head. Is unable to change direction acutely without stuttering.

Senior Bowl 1v1 Film:

Release did not help create deep separation. Surprisingly quick lateral release. Great dig, open due to excellent head movement throughout route. Ineffective cross-over into a drop, which is unsurprising given his struggle with short area separation. Most 'cross-over' routes lead to blanketed coverage. Hips stay relatively level during most cuts. When hips drop, plant foot is too far outside of his body to provide good power. Fights through contact, has excellent concentration and sideline awareness at catch point. Poor hip control and footwork on comeback route. Struggling with separation against press on boundary routes. Dig route always open. Average mid-route stutter at best. Almost always pivots too far away from his body. Finally get to see his out route against press, which is as effective as his dig. Wide plant leads to balance issues on multiple routes.

Coverage:

Press

Poor initial release does not give him much initial separation. Using positional advantage into either a dig or out usually results in a reception. Most other routes lead to contested catch situations.

Jam Response (in Press)

Did not notice jam attempts in games in games watched. He is usually in off coverage, but corners in press at his competition level know that Watson is more physical than they are and likely will not hinder his route.

Soft Press

Comparable to performance against tight press. Watson generally does not gain an immediate step on the defender, and is frequently blanketed for the duration of the route.

Squat

Good into squat overall. He wins if contact is initiated, but struggles to get open deep. He can generally gain positioning on intermediate routes, but his route running overall is not his strong suit.

Off

Curl route is excellent against off coverage due to great innate deceleration. One cut out route 5-10 yards out is generally effective as well. Can beat defenders deep across the middle who may be expecting better help from the safeties. Watson has bolstered separation numbers due to running so many curls against off coverage.

Inside Zone

Mostly asked to run behind the linebackers without much thought to where a hole might be. He can afford to improve his ability to gain separation against inside zone, but will likely not be put in that position much at the NFL level.

Route Distance:

Behind LOS

He lined up in the backfield and was given a fair number of screens, but this is not where he will ever thrive. He has had some break away screen plays from good speed and an excellent ability to use his blockers, but will likely not be asked to do as much behind the line of scrimmage in the NFL.

0-5 yards

Watson gets little to no separation in short areas. His lateral release is decent at times, but he lacks a reliable cross over once the defenders hips are turned the wrong way. He tries it a lot, but his plat foot is consistently too far out to be effective.

5-10 yards

Curl routes are run very frequently with great success, but it is also usually against off coverage. It also appears to be by far his most common route in games watched. His out route and dig are his two best routes. This is the area of the field where Watson finds the most success.

10-15 yards

He can find an opening behind the linebackers against shallow zone reliably. His back shoulder catches at this distance are also reliable, although not seen as much throughout his tape. If he has a route at this distance with a one step cut, it is likely to be rather effective.

15-20 yards

Very little separation down the sideline or from the slot. Crossing over the middle on a longer route from the outside is a better option at this distance over anything complex or involving multiple quick cuts. Sideline targets are almost always contested.

20+ yards

Deep separation relies more on defense consistently underperforming as opposed to any fancy route running by Watson. He is big and fast once he reaches full speed, so he can run across the middle from the outside to get open reliably. Success downfield was seen more frequently against zone than man. More open routes than expected down the sideline as well, but that should not happen against better competition given his lack of an abrupt release and footwork mid-route.

Blocking:

Willingness

Very willing blocker. Watson will always hurry inside to help on run plays when in a position to do so.

Technique

It is unsurprising that blocking technique would not be taught as thoroughly to receivers in a smaller program. That said, his pure size and length already make him a formidable blocker against cornerbacks. A little more technique may turn him into an excellent blocker.

Attributes:

Attributes		Grade (/10)	Notes
Separation	Short	2	There is little to no separation into press. Watson has 102 screen yards on 7 screen catches, but he will be used less in this capacity at the NFL level due to his slow acceleration. Often slow on quick slants from trying to sell false route too hard.
	Medium	5.5	He has a decent stutter into horizontal break that is difficult to cover and generally sold well with head movement. His curl route on the outside is also effective due to abrupt deceleration, although his comeback route still needs improvement due to slower acceleration back towards the line. Decent sideline awareness makes his out route just as effective as his dig, although it is not seen as frequently.
	Deep	4.5	An ineffective release does not give him the initial step, and good corners can usually match his speed and stay with him. That said, he has decent deep separation on more routes than expected in his tape. His level of competition may be lower, but getting deep separation against who ever he plays on any given week is all one can ask of him.
Release	Stance	9.5	Excellent stance. Rarely seen taking unnecessary steps. Unfortunately, this does not translate well into a quick release.
	Acceleration	4	Okay laterally when needed, but no linear explosiveness off of the line. Slow to get off of the line on the majority of routes, with very few impressive releases. Lateral acceleration could be improved easily with slightly better footwork.
	Hip Control	6	The grade for hip control actually increased significantly after the Senior Bowl. This is not because his fluidity was impressive, but because there are distinct areas that can be improved with training. At his size, he is still capable of quicker pivots and more reliable lateral releases than what he displays on film. A good wide receiver coach will recognize this and should be able to help him drastically improve his fluidity.
Hands	Catch Reliability	4	He has five recorded drops on the year, but his hands seem less reliable than that stat would indicate. First, his drops were rather egregious, bouncing directly off of his hands multiple times. Second, he only had 43 receptions. That is a 10.4% drop rate on catchable targets, which is significantly higher than any receiver in this class typically projected to go in the first three rounds other than Khalil Shakir. Third, someone with his skillset should have come down with more contested catches, which situationally are not considered drops.
	Catch Radius	8	His height alone makes him a red zone threat. His willingness to sacrifice his body to make the catch further increases his perceived catch radius, although his tape did not have many instances of this due to poor quarterback play. This is only not graded higher because his vertical appears quite poor on some attempts. Contested Catch - For someone who is 6'5, Watson does not thrive in contested catch situations. His highlight reel includes an impressive contested catch against Missouri State, but he only had 3 contested catches through all 12 games in 2021. He was given plenty of opportunities, but usually could not come down with it. Even in his Senior Bowl 1v1 film, he failed to impress in the end zone routes.
Versatility	Starting Position	2.5	Watson is an outside receiver only. He only took 25 snaps from the slot on passing plays in 2021, which amounted to one reception for seven yards. He does not have the footwork or lateral quickness to gain separation in short areas, and was rarely seen boxing out linebackers. He did have some success on end arounds and out of the backfield, but those plays were more a result of getting good blocks than him creating his own success on the majority of break away plays.
	Overall Skill Set	4	A limited route tree and starting position do not amount to a diverse skillset. His tools are great, but versatility is not why he is enticing.
RAC	Athleticism	7.5	Overall very athletic for 6'5. He may not have the lateral quickness of other receivers, but he has good body control, strength, and decent top-end speed.
	Agility	3.5	Very little elusiveness after the catch. He uses blockers well and can change direction slightly on single step cuts well enough to get more yards through contact or follow blockers. His shiftiness and ability to make multiple moves on any given run are severely lacking.
	Contact Balance	7	Sheds tackles attempted with outstretched arms. Only had 6 missed tackles forced in 2021, but that was more a result of lesser elusiveness than it was contact balance.
Awareness	Sideline	9	Accustomed to working the sideline. Occasionally toe taps with some room to spare, but that is his only real knock when it comes to sideline awareness.
	Defensive Scheme	5	Difficult to tell. He was frequently in off coverage against simpler schemes, so reading the defense was not a tall task. He did not do many route adjustments based on scheme, but it was never really necessary based on what the defense was already giving him.
	Improvisation	5	He was rarely put in the position to improvise on broken plays.

Full Report:

Watson is the definition of raw. He is big, strong, relatively fast, and flashes everything you need to see physically. He has one play of excellent footwork followed by many plays with sloppy footwork. His deceleration is fantastic, but he is inconsistent on comeback routes due to inconsistent footwork. His one step route breaks generally gain a step on his lesser competition because he is an excellent athlete who cannot reliably run complex routes effectively. His weaknesses include acceleration, separation, and change of direction, all of which are important qualities for any wide receiver. The Senior Bowl buffed his draft stock tremendously, but his 1v1 tape still did not fully impress. What was revealed at the Senior Bowl was that he can block, he is physically capable of a good release, and has many redeeming qualities rarely seen throughout the season that will give coaches confidence that they can mold him into a starting caliber wide receiver. If he can improve his release, change of direction, and high point ability, then he may develop into a number one receiver. Someone is going to fall in love with his size, but he is a couple of tiers away from being a day one prospect.

NFL Projection:

Watson will likely receive limited playing time year one while he works on refining his craft. When he is on the field, it will likely be as the second outside receiver who is asked to run more simple routes that do not exceed one cut. Depending on the program and his development, Watson will either start year two as an X or Y, or simply remain a sub-package type of receiver. He has the tools necessary to become a reputable X, but is not ready to be thrown into a high-rep role.