2022 NFL Off-Season Simulation: Washington Commanders

Full Spreadsheet Summary:

Here is a link to the Google Sheet with our roster, contract break downs, draft strategies, and information on all drafted rookies:

Objective:

The primary goal of the off-season is to build a team that can compete now. With rookie contracts on seven of our starters in Chase Young, Montez Sweat, Terry McLaurin, Antonio Gibson, Kamren Curl, Sam Cosmi, and Jamin Davis, now seems like a good time to compete in an overall weaker division.

The game plan for building this team consists of five steps:

1.       Trade for an established quarterback.

2.       Fill defensive holes.

3.       Bolster receiving core.

4.       Add reputable depth pieces for when injuries hit.

5.       Have a full starting roster before entering the draft.

Beginning the off-season:

Trade 1:

The number one goal is to find a trading partner for quarterback. We spoke with many teams, which yielded these scenarios:

1.       SF asked for Pick 42 for Jimmy Garoppolo. We promptly turned down the offer.

2.       Las Vegas asked for three firsts for Carr. After some minor negotiations, we realized that we were too far apart to ever come to an agreement.

3.       The Browns asked what we would pay for Baker Mayfield, but he is not the caliber of quarterback we want if we are playing to win it all.

Discouraged, we spoke with Packers, Dolphins, and even the Texans, but could not get the right offer in place. Finally, we extended an offer for Russell Wilson. The offer was Da’Ron Payne, Ereck Flowers, Pick 11, and a 2023 first. It was rejected, and while we were negotiating, the Titans reached out to us. They said that they do not think they can win with so many holes and injury riddled stars, and that it is best to start anew despite taking a huge cap hit on trading Tannehill.

We traded Pick 42 for Tannehill and Pick 142. We got our quarterback, and restructured his contract saving roughly $18 million in 2022 cap space to make room for us to build around him.

Trade 2:

In this scenario, Da’Ron Payne is requesting a trade. He does not feel as if he fits in here in Washington, and wants to move on. Luckily, trading him results in no dead cap. After a bidding war, the Texans claimed Payne and Pick 109 for Pick 37.

Trade 3:

Flowers was a $10 million cap hit for this year with no dead money associated with trading or cutting, and $10 million is too much to pay Flowers for one more season of being average. He may be PFF’s 6^th best graded pass protecting guard, but Schweitzer outperformed him on his snaps last year. After reaching out to 18 teams asking for compensation of third round value, it became apparent that no one wanted his contract. We ended up accepting the best offer that came our way. It is odd that Dallas was the taker, but we do not have any hesitation trading a player of his caliber within the division.

Internal Free Agency:

The initial considerations when entering free agency are how we can build around Tannehill and fill all defensive holes. In Tennessee, Tannehill thrived from the play action pass. We may not have Derrick Henry, but we did run the ball on first down the seventh most in the NFL last season (Tennessee being the eighth most). If we can continue to run effectively and improve our receiving core, Tannehill should thrive in Washington.

The only internal free agents that accepted the offer immediately were Brandon Scherff, Jon Bostic, and Danny Johnson, with Slye being tenured and Ismael being a restricted free agent. After some negotiations, Tim Settle also re-signed.

Scherff received a deal that matches the highest AAV of any guard in the NFL. We believe that he is necessary if we are going to put Tannehill in the best possible position. Settle will receive a higher volume role as our best internal run defender, and Bostic was only signed to a veteran minimum deal as a former captain.

Deshazor Everett is then cut to save $2.05 million after being charged with involuntary manslaughter.

External Free Agency (Part 1 - Starters):

Offense:

The offense already has solid starters.

QB: Ryan Tannehill – (PFF’s 8^th ranked quarterback in 2021, 6^th ranked in 2020.)

RB: Antonio Gibson + Jarrett Patterson – (Still need a receiving back, preferably McKissic.)

TE: Logan Thomas – (Bates was by far the best run blocking tight end of 2021.)

OL: Leno; Schweitzer; Roullier; Scherff; Cosmi – (Solid starting five; no additions needed.)

WR: McLaurin + Samuel – (Need receiver help badly.)

After making an offer on McKissic, we went hard after Allen Robinson. After initially offering $17 million per season, his agent reached out to us. We then increased the offer to 4yr, $74 million, making Robinson the 8^th highest paid receiver in the NFL. While he had a down season in 2021, his talent will make him a pivotal part of this offense across from McLaurin.

We also sent a low ball offer to Christian Kirk. While we like the talent, his skillset does not align with what we are after.

Defense:

Defense is a bit more nuanced. With our personnel, we will be playing primarily 4-3 and nickel, with Landon Collins in an unspecified more versatile role between schemes. Our starting roster has some strong pieces, but there are plenty of holes:

DL: Sweat; Allen; Ioannidis; Young – (All pass rushers. Will need run stopping help at LB.)

LB: Davis; Holcomb; Collins – (Collins will move around and swap to SS if Curl is injured.)

CB: Fuller; Jackson – (Need depth badly.)

S: Curl; ?? – (Need a FS above all else.)

The primary target was Marcus Williams, but he was tagged and traded to Dallas. Next up on the list was Marcus Maye. Before taking on a more versatile role, he was an excellent single high free safety. While the injury is concerning, signing him to a long-term deal is either cheaper now than it will be once he returns to form, or a blunder that will backfire if he does not. We front-loaded the guaranteed money so that the option to trade or release him is available two years out.

We then need to ensure that we have linebackers who can stop the run due to having four pass rushers up front. Jamin Davis was drafted as such, and had little success in coverage back in college. While he struggled in his rookie season, he is now moved back to weak side where he is more comfortable. Collins had a PFF run defense grade that would have ranked 5^th among all linebackers and 8^th among all safeties in 2021. The targeted FA, Alexander Johnson, is PFF’s third ranked linebacker with the third ranked run defense in 2021. The combination of Johnson, Davis, and Collins should be able to stop the run, while the front four primarily focus on rushing the quarterback. Obvious, it is not that simple; the personnel were merely selected around this concept.

Finally, a nickel defense cannot be run without an abundance of cornerbacks with some healthy depth. Chris Harris Jr. was signed as a vet to be the primary slot corner.

External Free Agency (Part 2 – Depth):

Injuries and Covid were absolutely detrimental to success in 2021. This is why much of the remaining cap space was used on acquiring borderline start-worthy depth pieces.

Offense:

Cornelius Lucas did not re-sign, and Schweitzer has earned a starting position. The entire second team for the offensive line was revamped. Remmers and Villanueva were signed as back-up tackles. Cosmi and Leno will almost certainly miss at least some time, so experienced veterans who can play at a high level when called to the plate are important. Phil Haynes and John Miller were signed at guard for the same reasons.

If we are going to be running frequently, signing one of the best run blocking receivers makes sense. Laquon Treadwell has played decently overall the last three seasons and is still only 26, so he seems like a good fourth receiver for our scheme. Humphries was re-signed and former third round pick Dyami Brown can still earn some playing time, but a bigger receiver was also desired after Cam Sims left.

Defense:

The secondary is where the most depth is needed. The defensive line proved that it could hold up in the absence of Sweat and Young, while Holcomb, Bostic, and Mayo are versatile and formidable back-ups to Davis, Johnson, and Collins, respectively. This is especially true if only two linebackers are on the field for the majority of plays.

M.J. Stewart was PFF’s 5^th highest graded safety in 2021, making him an excellent backup to Maye, who has an injury history. Stewart could also fill in at FS if Maye ever needs to play in the box due to injury or simply because he earns playing time.

Kyle Fuller was also united with his brother at corner. Kyle Fuller, Kendall Fuller, William Jackson III, Chris Harris Jr., Danny Johnson, and Ben St-Juste make up a very deep cornerback room in Washington.

 

NFL Draft:

There are now no holes or even depth pieces that have a dire need to be filled upon entering the draft. We have the luxury of drafting who ever is at the top of our board as opposed to the best remaining player at any given position. This also means that we can look for a trading partner, and acquire future capital if anyone wants to move up to pick 11.

Trade 1:

Green Bay Packers Receive: Pick 11 + 2023 7th

Washington Commanders Receive: Pick 28 + Pick 59 + Pick 247 + 2023 First

This trade does not negatively affect our ability to compete this year, while also giving us a second first round pick next year.

Trade 2:

Arizona Cardinals Receive: Pick 28 + Pick 188

Washington Commanders Receive: Pick 27

AJ Green and Christian Kirk departed from Arizona, who has pick 27. The Cardinals explicitly told us that they were interested in either selecting and edge or wide receiver. We told them that we could give them a free sixth to take that decision out of their hands. This was done because only one player in our top 20 remained, and he was power ranked 14^th.

Pick 27: Jahan Dotson

Here is our scouting report on Jahan Dotson:

He is so high on our draft board for two reasons. First, we values receivers and defensive backs above all other positions given the current state of our roster. Second, Dotson is an unpolished prospect who now has the luxury of developing behind some excellent receiving talent, and may end up taking the Curtis Samuel role if Samuel is not healthy or back to full form by the time his contract expires in two years. This role includes someone who is versatile and can play from the slot or be a deep threat on the outside when needed.

Pick 37: Bernhard Raimann

While offensive tackle may be our least needed position, Raimann is too good to fall into the second round. He is 15^th on the PFF big board, and has incredible numbers for someone who has only played his first season of left tackle in 2021.

Mike Remmers is also on a one year contract, and can easily be cut from the 53 man roster if he gets outperformed during camp. Either way, Raimann should sit for at least a year before he is thrust into a full-time role due to his limited playing experience.

Pick 59: Leo Chenal

Chenal is exactly the type of linebacker Washington is after. He weighs 261lbs with a PFF run defense grade of 94.1, which is second only to Micah Parsons’ 94.8 all-time college record. Chenal may be a bit slower, but he is a middle linebacker only who is accustomed to going up against good competition. He will be an excellent back-up for Alexander Johnson, who also has an injury history.

Trade 3:

Chicago Bears Receive: Pick 73 + Pick 228

Washington Commanders Receive: Pick 124 + Pick 150 + 2023 Third

This is an excellent opportunity to collect more future capital. There is no one we particularly want after taking Chenal, and the value obtained in this trade is too much to pass up.

Trade 4:

New York Giants Receive: Pick 124 + Pick 176

Washington Commanders Receive: Pick 111

Is this an excessive number of trades? It may be, but each one is beneficial. We trade back up in the fourth for a hybrid safety/linebacker who will have the opportunity to learn from playing under Landon Collins.

Pick 111: JoJo Domann

Domann has a versatile skillset that we wanted to have on our roster with how many defensive formations and options we will employ throughout the season. We also are in a rough cap situation in 2023 which may very well lead to Collins getting cut or traded. If Domann can step up this year, then we will be more comfortable with him taking that potentially vacant hybrid role.

Pick 142: Cordale Flott

Flott is another versatile defensive player who has lined up at nickel, outside, and single high safety for LSU. While possessing good length and athleticism, he is only 165lbs at 6’1-2 and joining a crowded cornerback room in Washington. He is not a run stopper, but could potentially earn some playing time in sub-packages if he improves throughout the season.

Pick 150: Matthew Butler

Butler was picked based on positional need instead of the draft board rankings. Settle, Allen, and Ioannidis are the only defensive tackles on the roster who took snaps in 2021. While all three are solid starters, defensive tackle is where depth is lacking most after trading away Payne. Butler is a balanced prospect with regard to pass rush and run defense, so hopefully he can fill in when needed on any down.

Pick 247: Dustin Crum

With only two quarterbacks on the roster, Washington selects one from a smaller school who has put up surprisingly good stats throughout his career. At this point in the seventh round, Crum seemed like the most likely selection to actually fight for a roster spot if they find value in rostering three quarterbacks.

UDFA:

Five UDFAs were then selected to round out the 90-man roster. These guys were selected in positions where they would be able to at least compete for a chance to be selected for the 53-man roster:

1.       Chamarri Connor, CB, Virginia Tech

2.       Tyrone Truesdell, DT, Florida

3.       Eric Gray, RB, Oklahoma

4.       Max Borghi, RB, Washington State

5.       Doug Kramer, C, Illinois

 

Looking Ahead:

Overall, we believe that we built a squad ready to compete. We acquired our quarterback and built around his strengths. We also filled in all of our defensive holes, and added depth across the roster. We were able to acquire luxurious assets in the draft by filling out the roster beforehand. Unfortunately, all of these pieces do not come without issues.

Cap space in 2023 is going to be concerning. With this many backloaded contracts, there will need to be some cuts and restructures next year. The first to go will likely be Landon Collins and Curtis Samuel, depending on 2022 performances. We also will need to extend McLaurin, and likely will not be able to take on Sweat’s 5^th year option. We knew the cost going into this with every calculated decision, and know that we will be able to maintain a strong roster by cutting some of the more expensive weaker links next year.

We also may have better personnel for a 3-4 defense instead of a 4-3 in 2023. With Allen, Settle, and Ioannidis in the front and three starting caliber linebackers who thrive inside, a 3-4 may be better assuming Young can play edge and another guy steps up. This especially will be the case if Holcomb cannot be re-signed, and Collins is cut. It may not be optimal, but we will get there when the time comes.

As long as Tannehill can be once again restructured and extended next year, the offense will continue to be excellent moving forward. The number one priority of next year is signing McLaurin to a long-term deal.

There are strong pieces across the board entering the season; stronger than we have had in quite some time. Washington fans have all but given up hope on this organization, but hopefully bringing in a plethora of talent and finally winning some games will reinvigorate the fans.

Please let us know how you would feel about this potential situation. It is difficult getting your first choices with 31 other teams out there, but we got the majority of our first and second choices by slightly overpaying. I hope you all enjoyed this simulation, and please let us know your opinion on what we did well verses areas that could have been improved. #HTTC