Philadelphia Eagles – Primed for Massive 2022 Leap
The Eagles may have squeaked into the playoffs this last season, but they certainly were not considered in the same tier as most of their playoff competitors. The team ended with a positive record, despite going 3-3 in a weak division, but looked completely lost against Tampa in the playoffs. Every metric says that not only will they improve, but will actually rival the best teams in the NFL in the upcoming season.
Offense
The Eagles were 12th in points per game last season, but there are several reasons why they should easily crack the top 8 in 2022. First, they ended last season trending in the right direction. Their final eight
games were significantly better than their first nine, finishing with a 6-2
record over that span. There are a couple of reasons for this shift. For one, they started running more. In their
first nine games, they averaged 26.9 rushing attempts per game, while they averaged 38.5 rushing attempts per game over their final eight games:
 |
| Weeks 1-9 |
 |
| Weeks 10-18 |
Also, Hurts had more games under his belt. Going into his second year
as a starter, he is on the right trajectory. When observing teams that make
significant leaps in Expected Points Added (EPA) from one season to the next, there is one commonality that
has to do with the quarterback.
If each diagonal line above is considered a “tier,”
then arguably the only five teams that jumped two or more “tiers” from 2020 to 2021 are
the Bengals, Broncos, Cowboys, Eagles, and Patriots. One superficial similarity
is that the Eagles and Bengals had their quarterback enter year two, while the
other three effectively acquired a new quarterback from the season prior (Dallas
had theirs return from injury). Obviously, every team that acquired a new quarterback or took theirs into year two did not improve, but it is an interesting similarity among the teams that did.
Well, the Bengals went to the Super Bowl, but Hurts seemed to get more comfortable as the season progressed having only started four games in 2020. The Eagles could easily take another leap forward from 2021 to 2022 with pieces only getting better across the board. If they make another two-tier jump, then they may even surpass their Super Bowl winning 2017-2018 form:
This leads to the second reason that the offense should drastically improve, personnel, which is also why
they started rushing more over the latter half of 2021. Reagor is not living up to expectations as a
former first round pick, and DeVonta Smith was still a rookie last year. The
Eagles recently acquired A.J. Brown, and paid him $100 million. Over the last
few years, there is an odd tendency regarding top tier receivers getting traded
and quarterback performance.
Let’s look at all wide receivers typically considered elite, or close to it, who
were traded over the last five years:
|
Wide Receiver |
Trade Date |
New
Quarterback |
|
Julio
Jones |
06/01/2021 |
Ryan
Tannehill |
|
Brandin
Cooks (Part 2) |
04/09/2020 |
Davis
Mills* |
|
Stefon
Diggs |
03/16/2020 |
Josh Allen |
|
DeAndre
Hopkins |
03/16/2020 |
Kyler Murray |
|
Odell
Beckham Jr. |
03/19/2019 |
Baker
Mayfield |
|
Amari
Cooper |
10/22/2018 |
Dak Prescott |
|
Brandin
Cooks (Part 1) |
04/03/2018 |
Jared
Goff |
*Rookie – no data from the previous season.
Only two of these quarterbacks improved noticeably during the season
following the trade, and they had one thing in common that the rest of these quarterbacks
lacked. In the years prior to receiving their new offensive weapon, Josh Allen
and Kyler Murray each had over 500 rushing yards. This is an indication that these
elite athletes did not have the best targets on offense, but were talented
enough to still get work done in the run game and be considered worthy of a
starting position.
Murray’s completion percentage increased from 64.4% to 67.2% after
the addition of Hopkins, while Allen’s completion percentage increased from 58.8%
to 69.2% with the addition of Diggs. Hurts had 784 rushing yards, with only a 61.3%
completion percentage in 2021. If the acquisition of A.J. Brown can bolster that
percentage to above 67%, as it did for the other two mobile quarterbacks, then
the Eagles win totals should spike similarly to the Cardinals (5 in 2019 to 10 in
2020) and the Bills (10 in 2019 to 13 in 2020).
This is especially the case with Hurts’ tendency to throw deep, despite
not having the best personnel to do so. The Eagles were surprisingly 5th
in the league for deep passes in 2021:
 |
| 2021 Pass Distance Frequency per Team |
This is mostly thanks to Quez Watkins, who averaged 15.0 yards per reception. This is unusual considering he was in the slot or tight on 72.2% of snaps (via Rotowire), where receivers typically average lower yards per reception. An increase in deep success rate will be crucial for keeping drives alive, and scoring more points.
The third reason is how well the offensive line is performing,
especially with Mailata improving with a full time starting role in 2021. Pro Football
focus released a graphic on potential pass protection in 2022 based on PFF scores
and draft capital prior to the NFL Draft:
With the supposed best pass protection, elite weapons, and a quarterback who is actively improving, the Philadelphia Eagles offense is primed to go nuclear in 2021. That said, offense is not the only aspect that matters.
Defense
The Eagles made improvements to every facet of their defense over the off-season. Most
recently, the Eagles acquired former Pro Bowler James Bradberry to improve their
secondary. In 2021, Steven Nelson led the cornerback room in snaps with 1052 on
the season (including post-season), playing 924 of them out wide across from
Darius Slay. Their second best performing corner behind Slay was actually Avonte Maddox, who played 659 snaps in the slot compared to only 22 out wide.
Nelson moved on to Houston, and was replaced with Bradberry in
Philadelphia. This addition will make nickel packages significantly stronger with
all three cornerbacks on the field. Bradberry and Slay both thrive in man coverage,
but can also play zone rather well when needed. The ability to play Cover 1 will
be important if they attempt to increase their blitz rate, which is likely due to the acquisition of Haason Reddick, who is currently designated as SAM in their 4-3 base defense.
It is also a misconception that the Eagles have a subpar
linebacking core. First, T.J. Edwards and Kyzir White were PFF’s 10th
and 20th best overall linebackers in the NFL last season, respectively. Adding
Reddick to a 3-yr, $45 million dollar deal, and drafting Georgia captain Nakobe
Dean, the single highest PFF graded linebacker in all of college football in
2021, will give them the fire power and depth that they need to take a step forward
as a group.
 |
| Nakobe Dean PFF Grade |
Finally, the defensive line added a necessary rotational piece with the 13th pick of the 2022 NFL Draft. Also a Georgia Bulldog, Jordan Davis is a stout run defender who will complement the existing defensive tackles, Hargrave and Cox.
 |
| Jordan Davis PFF Grades |
John Hargrave is an excellent piece on passing downs, but hardly an
every down player:
 |
| Defensive Tackle PFF Grades in 2021 |
Fletcher Cox is six time Pro Bowler, but his age is beginning to catch up with him. Maybe the 31-year-old can bounce back, but 2021 was his first season missing the Pro Bowl since 2014. With former first rounders Brandon Graham and Derek Barnett set to start on the edge, even an average performance along the defensive front should allow this defense to thrive with their new pieces in the linebacking core and secondary.
Upshot
Every area of this Philadelphia team either maintained continuity or
improved drastically. They already made the playoffs in 2021, and are primed to
take a massive leap forward in 2022. They have the third easiest strength of schedule,
giving them even more cushion to make the playoffs for a second straight year. If
Hurts can prove that he is their guy, then look for the Eagles to make a playoff
run in the upcoming season.
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