Bijan Robinson - Early Scouting Report

 

 

Bijan Robinson - Texas

Overview:

Strengths:

1. Single-Step Cuts - His cuts are always intentional. He stays low to the ground, covers a good amount of distance, and can easily accelerate out of each step. He has excellent power and vision, making both cuts to change gaps and cuts in the open field beyond the line of scrimmage very effective.

2. Contact Balance - Outstretched arms will not slow him down, and weak tackles will not bring him down. Robinson makes quick and powerful open-field moves so that most head-on tackle attempts become slight angles instead. His spin move keeps him upright, and his strength and determination to continue the play allow him to maintain his footing when defenders bounce off of him.

3. Vision - Robinson excels behind zone blocking with elite vision. He almost always is able to maximize yardage based on what is given, and can make quick cuts to switch gaps when he sees fit. He also has great vision on the second level, frequently making cuts early to flip the hips of the linebackers and safeties so that they do not get head-on tackles.

 

Weaknesses:

1. Straight-Line Speed - While his acceleration and burst are excellent, his straight line speed is well below average.

2. Blocking - His pass protection is decent at times when he sees the linebacker before the play begins, but he has no technique whatsoever. He also is not seemingly willing to get in front of lineman who beat their block.

3. Power Gap - This is not necessarily a weakness, but much of what makes Bijan Robinson elite is his vision and ability to make plays in space. Behind power schemes, he blindly follows the play design and does not frequently burst through the designated gap with as much intensity. Not only does he have his lowest YPC of any blocking scheme when running behind power at 4.57, but the other running backs on his own team average 0.17 YPC more than him in power. While this difference may be negligible, he certainly does not separate himself from the other backs who may go undrafted.

 

Grade: Mid First

Bijan Robinson could certainly go inside the top 10, but NFL teams are becoming less likely to select a running back in that range.

 

Film:

Louisiana (09/04/2021)

Rushing: 20-103-1 Receiving: 4-73-1

Good at providing outlets, both in the backfield and underneath. Got wrapped up one-on-one in open field. Excellent cut through zone blocking. Great hip levels. Tunneled behind gap block. Excellent power run, breaking three tackles behind poor gap blocking. Good hands. Lined up as slot receiver, and got a step of separation 10 yards downfield on decent route. Natural route runner with okay footwork. Good patience in gap. Did not pick up blitz. Can lower pads to get positive yardage. Impressive route. Insane contact balance and strength. Decent block pick-up. Great patience behind zone, but not to a fault. Very good acceleration, but not elite. Better when he can use his vision behind zone blocking than he is blindly following a lead blocker. Excellent cuts in backfield.

Arkansas (09/11/2021)

Rushing: 19-69-1 Receiving: 1-4-0

Excellent vision and balance. Does not help much in pass protection. Backfield moves help him burst through gaps behind zone. Generally makes the most out of poor blocking. Very strong legs and decisive cuts. Fluid receiver. Good stiff arms. Good footwork on potential screen, but weight distribution was suboptimal causing a brief pause on his pivot. Stays low on cuts, allowing him to accelerate immediately after displacement (Seen Below). Gets in the way on lead block, but not a natural blocker.

Texas Tech (09/25/2021)

Rushing: 18-137-0 Receiving: 2-54-1

Good blitz pick-up. Frequently does a little hop-step before leaving pass protection to provide an outlet. Fluid receiver. Great in open space, but lacks top-end speed. Very good stop-start ability. Good running behind zone. Good at using blockers, but could still improve in this area. Arm tackles do not slow him down. Elite contact balance. Good burst and angles on the outside. Must tackle him low. Excellent jump cut to switch gaps and maximize yardage. Fine block, but not much willingness. Excellent running behind gap, but did all the work himself.

Oklahoma State (10/16/2021)

Rushing: 21-135-2 Receiving: 3-38-1

Looks a little slow on end-around. Excellent pass protection. Smooth catch and run 10 yards downfield after lining up as a receiver. Very strong. Found best hole in zone blocking on a patient run. Does not seem to be running as hard as he is capable early in the first quarter. Excellent five yard bursts up the middle. Been solid in pass protection all game. When his block is telegraphed, he can pick it up well. Good screen footwork. Always gains positive yardage. Vision on the second level is fantastic, making early cuts to maximize gain. Solid catch in stride, as expected. Incredible cuts. Does not slow down from outstretched arms. Very abrupt, powerful movements. Good use of lead blocker. Not the most refined route runner, but more than serviceable.

 TCU (10/2/2021) [Touches Only]

Rushing: 35-216-2 Receiving: 2-22-0

Good catch in stride. Deadly spin move. Jump cuts stay low to the ground to maximize burst out of each cut. Great vision behind inside zone. Weak tackles will never bring him down. Patiently waits for guard in gap run, but the guard is rather slow to pull. Dropped very low pass that likely is not considered an official drop. Cut-backs are next-level. Ducks under multiple tackle attempts. Unsure how he is still making jump cuts and breaking tackles after carrying the ball over 30 times.

Receiving:

Route Running

While naturally a good receiver out of the backfield and great at catching the ball in stride on intermediate routes, his footwork on many routes could be refined. He is already excellent for a running back, but improving his technique is something that can make him even better than he already is. Many of his cuts 5-10 yards downfield are telegraphed by a hop-step. This has been fine throughout his college career, but good NFL coverage linebackers will read him easily. Just adding a little more refinement to his routes will go a long way in the receiving game if he continues to line up at times in the slot.

Run After Catch

Unsurprisingly excellent after the catch. Getting him in open space is something Texas tries to do in many ways. Lining up as an outside receiver for screens, taking snaps from the slot, wheel routes, and hooks over the middle all occur throughout his tape. He does not have elite speed, but he is fast enough to take a screen to the house if he makes one or two guys miss.

Hands

There were no blatant drops in the games observed. He may have been able to have one or two more receptions if he made difficult or acrobatic catches, but Robinson overall has reliable hands.

Fluidity

Bijan Robinson is extremely fluid in the receiving game. He catches in stride, and rotates his head downfield quickly without losing the football. He does not dance much in open space, but his power and single-step cuts make him a big play threat after every reception despite lacking top-end speed.

Pass Protecting

Not a natural blocker. He inconsistently picks up linebackers, but never attempts to chip a defensive lineman who blows past his blocker.

Big Play Potential

Robinson lacks top-end speed. He ran a 4.77 40-yard-dash coming out of high school, and his tape does not indicate that this has improved to anything above a 4.5-4.6. While he will not take a swing pass 90 yards to the house, he makes a large number of chunk plays after the catch for necessary yardage.

 

Rushing:

Power

Bijan has excellent power, frequently moving piles in his favor. There are some backs who are overall bigger and stronger, but his combination of strength and agility will allow him to brush off more tackles because his quick moves frequently change the angle of the tackler in his favor.

Elusiveness

His elusiveness does not come from dancing around to make guys miss completely because he runs much more efficiently than that. He makes a single cut and maintains speed, usually running right through the minimal contact that still made by the defenders. He also has unbelievable acceleration on his cutbacks, and can misdirect an entire defense from the backfield. He does not appear to be the most twitchy prospect, but he can find tremendous success in the open field with his instincts, cuts, spin move, contact balance, power, and ability to jump-cut a large distance without his shoulder pads changing levels.

Vision

Vision may be his best attribute. He makes the most out of what is available through cuts, quick bursts, and moves in the backfield to find the optimal gap. He is somehow able to read the whole field before making a cut-back and taking the outside because nearly every ad lib attempt to do so goes in his favor.

Tenacity

He does not appear to be "mean" on the field or lower his shoulder pads simply for the sake of making contact, but he has excellent second efforts after many backs would have been taken down. He certainly does not shy away from contact, and does everything in his power to make the most out of each opportunity.

Patience

Robinson demonstrates good patience, but not to a fault. As much as the commentators would commend his patience, he was quick to pick up necessary yardage if his blocks were suboptimal. He rarely was caught in the backfield through any fault of his own, but patient enough to let blocks develop when necessary. The only times he may be patient to a fault is when running behind a lead blocker at the second level. He will follow his blocker a little too closely, even when there may be enough space to make a bigger play on his own. This is not too frequent, but still seen multiple times throughout his tape.

Ball Security

He has two fumbles on 221 touches, and they both came in the same game.

Attributes:

Attributes		Grade (/10)	Notes
Running Style	Power Moves	9	Nasty stiff arm that allows him to take angles and maintain full strides through contact. He also can shed defenders that are coming at any angle other than head on rather reliably without making any sort of move. His spin move is derived from his power as he can rapidly spin to redirect head on contact as opposed to spinning solely to avoid a defender.
	Cuts	10	His extremely decisive cuts that keep him low to the ground but still displace him a good distance is what really separates Robinson from the rest. Most backs with his downhill strength cannot cut that quickly, and those who do often elevate their hips to make the move. Staying low allows Bijan to accelerate immediately after a cut in any direction he chooses.
	Physicality / Toughness	8	He does not shy away from contact by any means, but does not make unnecessary head-on contact. With such few weak areas to his game, interpreting that as "lacking toughness" is just an attempt to find flaws. His balance of saving his body and fighting for necessary yardage is exactly what it should be for a workhorse running back.
Backfield	Burst	9	His single-step burst has an incredible amount of power. He can be at nearly full speed instantly. It does not appear to have as much twitch as some of the other top prospects, so he does not shake or dance much before driving. This is generally a good thing for running backs, but will sometimes limit his options in the open field.
	Blocking	4	He will get in the way of blocks when necessary, but has practically no technique. This can be improved, but his willingness needs to increase as well.
	Outlet	9.5	Any swing pass to Robinson generally leads to positive yardage. He is a fluid receiver, and knows how far to leak based on the play. He is rarely stuffed at the line after receiving a pass in the backfield.
Receiving	Catch Reliability	9.5	Extremely reliable hands. He catches everything out of the backfield, over the middle, and as a designated receiver.
	Catch Radius	7.5	He can make catches away from his body, but does not have many acrobatic receptions on his tape. He is a reliable receiving back, but does not play the position like a top-tier wide receiver.
	Contested Catch	6	There really have not been opportunities for him to box out or go up over defenders for receptions. He can catch the ball when he knows he is about to get hit over the middle, but will need more tape for this grade to get adjusted.
	Route Running	7	He does many hop-steps and has a poor line release on his routes from the slot. He looks like he is feeling out every rep, but is by no means a refined wide receiver. For a running back, he is quite smooth and gets the job done. With a bit of coaching, he could definitely be better in the receiving game from the backfield, slot, and outside.
Vision	Patience	9	Patience is one of his best attributes from the backfield. He is great at weighting for the perfect opportunity to burst. There is some room for improvement on the second level when following a lead block, but that will come with repetition.
	Grunt Work	8	He can put his head down to gain the two yards needed up the middle, but the offense did not ask him to do that frequently. With other backs rotating, Texas was usually a bit more clever with their play design. Robinson is certainly capable of putting his head down for those yards, but it is best to save your superstar from taking too many unnecessary reps.
Open-Field Running	Athleticism	8.5	This is a difficult area to grade for Bijan. He is strong, an excellent mover, and has elite balance, but he lacks top-end speed. He probably should be graded higher, but speed is still an important attribute. If he can show more break away home run plays this year, then this metric could easily become a 9+/10.
	Agility	9	Again, he does not ever dance or stutter excessively. He makes one cut and drives through it before making another cut. There is little wasted movement in his open-field running style. There is still some room for improvement, but his single-step cuts are absolutely deadly.
	Contact Balance	10	Some of the best contact balance of any prospect in recent history. Even without good footing, he can manage to spin or power through tackles from guys much bigger than he is. It would not be surprising if he set records for missed tackles forced in 2022.
Pure Attributes	Speed	5.5	Straight-line speed is his greatest weakness. He ran a 4.77 40-yard-dash out of high school, and there is no reason to think that his time has drastically improved.
	Strength	8.5	His play strength is excellent, but there are some stronger NFL running backs. Since he is only 20 years old, his strength should improve throughout the next couple of years. This is yet another area that could easily become 9+/10.
Scheme	Gap	8	Uses lead block well and can blindly follow, but gap seems to lead to fewer big plays than zone. If he gets better at bursting around his lead blocker when the time comes, then he will have more success. He also tends to try and follow the play exactly as planned instead of using his vision to make better decisions. A bit more maturity and repetition should help him decide when it is best to deviate for the big play potential, verses when he needs to put his head down to ensure a two to three yard gain.
	Zone	9.5	He has excellent vision, and can create big plays if he surveys the blocks and makes the appropriate cuts. He also has tremendous burst up the middle, averaging 6.97 yards per carry behind inside zone (compared to 5.70 ypc by the other backs on his team, who were rather impressive in their own right).
Versatility	Three Down Skillset	9.5	He should practically never come off of the field. He can handle volume at his size, and has had games with up to 35 carries. He is excellent in the receiving game, and an adequate pass protector. While Robinson was subbed out a fair amount for rest in college, that was more because of the offensive scheme than anything. No one could handle all of the run plays called by Texas without some relief.
	Football IQ	8.5	No one is doubting his vision and decision making behind zone blocking. He has great football IQ, but there are some areas where he can improve. Picking up blocks on missed assignments, reading the field as a receiver, and knowing when to stop using his designated lead blocker are all areas on which he will need to work in 2022. This is asking a running back to go above and beyond what is necessary to be great, but a running back will likely not be taken in the top 10 picks unless he has absolutely no weaknesses.
	Improvisation	7	He sometimes sits in the middle of the field in coverage on his route, even when his quarterback is looking for an outlet. This is infrequent, but he can get better at knowing when to improvise on a play. His cut-backs are incredible to make a play when the gaps are closed, but that ability is already reflected in other grades.

 

Full Report:

Bijan Robinson is the best running back prospect in the last five years. He has excellent vision, play strength, cuts, and decisiveness. His cuts stay low to the ground, allowing him to accelerate in any direction out of each cut efficiently. He always finds the optimal gap in zone, and even cuts back to the outside with great effectiveness. Open-field running, receiving, and the ability to play all three downs with great effectiveness all are icing on the cake for the best running back prospect since Saquon Barkley. The only reason he may not be a top ten prospect is because of his lack of speed. While he can make big plays and has some longer touchdowns from forcing missed tackles, he will likely never have a 90 yard breakaway touchdown. He gets caught from behind a decent amount on his tape, and does not have that extra gear in open space. He also has room to improve in pass protection and route running. While this is not the greatest reason why he could fall out of the top 10 picks, refining the only areas that are not currently considered elite could compensate for his lack of speed come draft day.

NFL Projection:

Bijan Robinson has a fantastic 2022 season, and solidify himself as a top 10 draft pick.