2023 NFL Draft: Josh Downs - North Carolina Wide Receiver

     

Josh Downs – North Carolina

Strengths:

1. Separation - Downs can get separation against any type of coverage over any area of the field (starting from the slot).

2. Route Pacing - His ability to maximize time in zone, as well as burst at the right times to maximize separation verses man in unparalleled.

3. Route Subtleties - Downs understands how to play his opponent. He is patient, explosive, and a smart route runner, allowing him to reliably throw off his man time and time again. He does this exceptionally well immediately off of the line.

Weaknesses:

1. RAC - Without much elusiveness in the open field and zero contact balance, Downs is not much of a threat to make a guy miss.

2. Size - He is a small target. While he is listed at 5'10", he appears considerably smaller. He does not have the strength to contest outside corners or break any tackles.

3. Blocking - Downs usually does not even attempt to block, even when it could be beneficial to the play.

Grade: Early Second

Downs is one of the best separators in this class, but his size limits his role in the NFL. Without much RAC ability, he enters the NFL as an undersized talented slot wide receiver.

Pro Comparison: Tyler Lockett

Downs has significantly better burst and contested catch ability coming out of college, but the way they create separation through varied route speeds, nuance, and ability to pull away verses man despite being undersized is very similar.

Film Notes:

Virginia (11/05/2022): 15-166-1

Worked underneath the linebackers on a good split step. Good nuanced route running. Accelerated into the flat after faking a block. Balance on multiple receptions was an issue. Wrapped up in open field on gadget plays. Never covered too tightly from the slot. Good accelerating down the sideline. Could be faster out of route breaks for his size. Gains one extra step against man coverage reliably from acute bursts. Good catch away from body. Excellent at weaving between defenders, but gets brought down by arm tackles. He can skirt by guys in the box on deep routes with ease - absolutely torched the nickel on a quick hopstep. Works zone coverage beautifully with excellent pacing on both short and intermediate routes.

Pittsburgh (10/29/2022): 11-102-2

Quick burst to maximize time spent in zone underneath. Powerful initial steps on release. Unseen wide open around linebackers. Decent attempt in the open field. Very athletic effort to take corner and dive for the pylon. Excellent route over the middle, but missed in stride. Patient stutter to ensure he broke his opponent's ankles. Quick pivots. Actually covered the full route by stronger defender. Unique route move with incredible burst, and a good catch over defender. Decent RAC attempt. Second good RAC due to speed down the sideline. Slow pivot step compared to usual. Light block. Another good run by taking the edge. Typically cannot fall forward for the extra yard.

Wake Forest (11/12/2022): 11-154-3

Good hopstep to gain a step going deep. Always gets a step underneath through mid-route bursts. Can sit in front of or behind linebackers and find maximum space. Body language on routes is beautiful. Pulled away from contact easily to make impressive catch away from body. Avoided block that may have helped the runner. Oddly effective goal line threat. Great single step cuts as well as stutters. Great hands all around. Had one of his three drops on the season, which he should have hauled in, but was not an easy catch. Always gains separation in man. Cannot break tackles. Came off of the line so quickly. Does not even attempt to block. Route causes linebackers to run into each other. While this is more play design, he still navigated the LOS very well underneath. Not great RAC. Excellent separation across the middle verses man. Knows how to rotate defender's hips. Great use of hopstep. Contested catch for touchdown. Knows how to avoid line contact.

Attributes (Grade/10):

Separation	Short	10
	Medium	9.5
	Deep	8

Short: He is always open. His mid-route bursts are perfectly timed, and he is great at working underneath the linebackers. He gets to the flats quickly, and has exceptional footwork all around. His 92.1 PFF grade versus man coverage shows itself on shorter routes because he pulls away so reliably when needed. He is great at working in small amounts of space, and his lack of size does not inhibit his ability to win at the line. His footwork and body control minimize line contact, and his size makes him a smaller target for jams. There is very little to critique about his route running prowess near the LOS, and since this category is about separation and not YAC, grading him a 10/10 is an obvious choice.

Medium: Downs is a very patient route runner who knows when to burst. Some of his moves are immediate, while he waits the the opponent to commit before making a cut on others. He is incredible against zone underneath, and a complete mismatch for linebackers. Downs has the most polished intermediate route running in class. His diverse move pool along with consistency in execution would elicit a 10/10, but the inability to really use his body to make catches in traffic bumps it down a very small peg.

Deep: Downs still has the same route subtleties on deep routes as he displays in shorter routes. He can also win at the catch point, but does not have the same threat of speed as guys like Jalin Hyatt in this class. He allegedly runs a 4.34 40-yard-dash now, but his straight-line speed does not appear as fast on tape. His 9-route needs subtle moves because running in a straight line is not quite as effective. He is great downfield, as indicated by his 8/10 grade, and his speed is absolutely fine. He just does not have the DeSean Jackson on-field speed that everyone seems to want him to have despite their similar combine metrics.

Release	Stance	9
	Acceleration	9.5
	Hip Control	9.5

Stance: A bit upright, causing him to occasionally have to sink before accelerating. This does not really slow him down, but it is still suboptimal at times. Besides that extra quarter of a second it takes for him to get off the line every few routes, his release is excellent.

Acceleration: Downs came out of high school with a 42" vertical. His acceleration from the line is excellent, and he can come off linearly or laterally with comparable effectiveness.

Hip Control: The fluidity in his hips allows him to come off of the line in any direction with ease. He could still sink lower on his 180s, but his hip control upon release is outstanding.

Hands	Catch Reliability	9
	Catch Radius	5.5
	Contested Catch	8.5

Catch Reliability: With 3 drops and 94 receptions on 116 targets, his hands are as reliable as they come. He is good at catching in traffic and away from his body.

Catch Radius: This is as high a grade as he can get for his size. He is listed at 5'10", but appears much smaller. With his ability to catch low and high, he has a larger effective catch radius than many other 5'10" receivers.

Contested Catch: Downs has a contested catch rate of 72.2%. That is higher than any receiving prospect projected to go on day one or day two of the NFL draft, and he is only 5'10, 174lbs. His ball skills are tremendous, and the ability to maximize separation while the ball is in the air puts him in a better position to make the catch. He is not going to out-jump outside corners, but his ability to catch the ball away from his body in traffic is remarkable.

RAC	Athleticism	8.5
	Agility	6
	Contact Balance	1.5

Athleticism: Downs is incredibly athletic, but this cannot be bolstered too much with his lack of size and strength. He has elite explosive ability, and great speed, but his size moves his score down slightly.

Agility: In the open field, he rarely makes defenders miss with only 7 missed tackles forced over 94 receptions in 2022. His lack of shiftiness with the ball is surprising, and he is by no means a gadget player.

Contact Balance: Downs gets wrapped up by fingertips, and typically does not make the first man miss. Adding a bit of lower body strength would do wonders for his game.

Blocking	Technique	3
	Willingness	2.5

Technique: It is difficult to see his technique with his tendency of jumping out of the way. When he does engage, he usually does not help the play significantly.

Willingness: Downs is frequently seen putting his hands in the air as if the defender yelled "freeze," and moving out of the way. He occasionally will engage, but is not effective even when he does put forth his minimal effort. There are times when getting his body in the way would help the play significantly, but he fails to do even that much. Even at his size, he can be more effective than he has been.

Coverage	Press	9.5
	Off	9.5

Press: He is rarely held up despite his size, and is one of the best pure separators in the game. As long as he starts from the slot, he knows how to lose his man.

Off: He seemingly always finds the open space. There are games where he could have doubled his already high target volume with the amount where he is left in the open. Working underneath against linebackers is always a mismatch.

Full Report:

Shorter wide receivers weighing under 180lbs are typically either deep threats or gadget players, but this is not the case with Downs. He does not have next-level straight line speed, although his speed is certainly of no concern, and he is honestly not very effective in the open field with his lack of ability to make guys miss and poor contact balance. What he does have is the best route running in class within 15 yards of the LOS. His ability to separate in man is unparalleled, and he is great at maximizing space in zone. He is a patient route runner, who optimizes timing his bursts with his opponent's footwork to maximize separation out of route breaks. His contested catch ability is incredible for his size, he can make difficult catches away from his body with very few drops on tape. That said, he is a slot receiver only who actively avoids blocking and has limited versatility at the line. He is quick to turn upfield with the ball, but he gets wrapped up in the open field on screens when there is a guy to beat. He will be a chain mover with a few highlight reel catches, but will never be moved permanently to the outside or treated as the number one option. While he is as good as it gets underneath, he will likely fall in the draft due to his slight build and limited skillset.

NFL Projection:

He will likely go early in the second round to a struggling team, and have a good career from the slot.