2023 NFL Draft: Quentin Johnston - TCU Wide Receiver

     

Quentin Johnston - TCU

Strengths:

1. Deceleration - This is what separates Johnston from the rest. At 6'4, he can stop on a dime. His footwork on three-step 180s is consistently perfect, and he can plant on one foot and accelerate at acute angles. This is something usually only seen by gadget players under 6' tall.

2. Open-Field Running - Johnston has spin moves, jump cuts, and can break tackles from college linebackers. His acceleration in combination with his open field prowess makes him a big play threat on any given play. There is no one of his size in the NFL with his open-field ability.

3. Suddenness - His twitch in a vacuum does not necessarily jump off the page, but his route breaks, line release, and false moves are absolutely elite for a guy his size.

Weaknesses:

1. Hands - Not only does he have a 14% drop rate, but he avoids going up and getting the ball with his hands. He will jump absurdly high just to make the body catch, which has lost him time he could be running after the catch. For a freaky fluid athlete who stands at 6'4 216lbs, he is oddly poor at contested catches. This is the reason he is not going top 5.

2. Blocking - He does not know how to block, period.

3. Tenacity - Hand fighting and contact while the ball is in the air deters him from going up for the catch. He has decent power with the ball in his hands, but otherwise seems to try and avoid contact and plays rather soft for his size.

Grade: Top 10 Pick

Johnston is one of the most unique prospects of the last decade. His size and speed combination with his RAC and route running ability are truly unparalleled.

Pro Comparison: Drake London.

Not as tenacious or aggressive with worse hands, but better footwork on quick breaks.

Film Notes:

Oklahoma State (10/15/2022): 8-180-1

Explosive release for 6'4. Sloppy footwork on release vs press. Knows how to turn a corner's hips on deep route without breaking full speed (although the competition was not too impressive). Tenacious with the ball in his hands. Not particularly muscular, but plays strong overall. Solid cuts after the catch. Good at sitting in zone, both shallow and mid. consistently great inside breaks. Perfect footwork on three-step 180. Plays both outside and slot. Doesn't get as much separation on shorter routes in his zone vs tight man coverage. Knows how to stay open when crossing. Always wide open against inside linebackers. Never asked to really block all game. Stop and go route against a corner six yards off shows inexperience, but the body control on the route is promising. Ability to stop in a single step is what you'd expect from a 5'10 gadget player - unmatched in college ball for someone of his size.

Kansas State (10/22/2022): 4-74-1

Excellent inside breaks. Can find success outside and from the slot. Seems more comfortable breaking right than left (seen across multiple games). Dropped pass to chest. Sudden release for his size. Doesn't really know how to block. Another easy drop. Burned Brents on the go route. Good at getting his body in front of the ball, but could use his reach more than he does.

Texas (11/12/2022): 3-66-1

Drop step on release occasionally, but nothing to worry about. Great stop-start ability. Good contact balance. Quick parallel release for size. Terrible blocker. Good inside cut from left side. Team is not manufacturing him touches. Touchdown catch was blown coverage. Excellent cut inside gave optimal separation on a slant followed by drop. Went up and caught it with his hands outstretched, which is good to see from him. Lack of targets was no fault of his own.

Kansas (10/08/2022): 14-206-1

Likes to jump and catch with body unnecessarily (throughout tape). Great body control. Can stop in a single step to change direction. Great after the catch for his size. Fluid in the open field. Excellent acceleration off of the line followed by perfect footwork on pivot. Gets open throughout tape on double moves when accelerating mid route across center field. Good at following blocks in the open field, as well as creating his own space. Could improve at finding the zone, but usually pretty good at getting in empty space on intermediate routes. Great, but not elite, open field speed. Consistently incredible at open field running. Does not go up for it on contested catch situation. Excellent jump cuts. Good blocks, but poor technique.

Oklahoma (10/01/2022): 4-41-0

Poor blocking. Incredible lateral acceleration on release. Great footwork on route breaks. Fouled multiple times downfield, but seems to consistently be weak through contact. Fast linear release as well. Great deceleration on end around to pick up the first. Good concentration to catch deflected pass. Good in open field as always.

Coverage:

Press

Great at breaking inside against press, especially when starting on the left side. Uses hands a decent amount, but could be more effective hand fighting at the line. Release is very sudden, and has a great parallel release for a guy his size.

Soft Press

Johnston reliably gains 2+ yards of separation when cutting inside against soft press, particularly when starting from left field. His stutters and outside false steps are effective and typically sold hard enough for the corner to bite and rotate his hips at least slightly. He also is great at getting deep because he effectively sells a full sprint down the sideline before adjusting slightly inside. This has left him wide open more than once downfield.

Squat

With his ability to rotate the hips of the corner, Johnston is rather good into squat coverage.

Off

Johnston is asked to run shorter and crossing routes rather often at TCU, increasing his separation numbers significantly versus off coverage. He can gain separation against any type of coverage, but needs to work on consistency in separating from his man downfield against true off coverage.

Inside Zone

Inconsistent. Johnston is great at pacing himself when crossing the field versus zone, but does not always find a hole when he is supposed to sit. If blanketed in a hole, he will occasionally give up on the play of jog along with his scrambling quarterback instead of looking to give him a target on the move.

Route Distance:

Behind LOS

Excellent. Johnston is the best 6'4 gadget player out there. He is decent at following blockers, can make guys miss, and has a solid spin move as well. He is not great at getting that extra hard or two by lunging forward, but his open field ability after catching the ball behind the line is very impressive.

0-5 yards

His two yards slant is unstoppable. He has the suddenness to separate, and the frame to make the catch look easy if at all contested. His short area separation is one of the strong points in his game.

5-10 yards

Crossing patterns typically leave Johnston wide open. He has a good pace when crossing, and know how to work the zone across the middle. He can improve in this area, but he is good over the middle 5-10 yards out. He occasionally will get blanketed while coming back on the sideline, but this is not too worrisome.

10-15 yards

Johnston has an excellent double move he is asked to run rather often. He cuts across the field as if he is finding the hole in a zone in front of the linebackers, then sprints 10-15 yards beyond the LOS to get to the opposite side of the field. He usually does not have a defender on him for this route. Whether that is his doing or by play design, he still runs the route incredibly well. He also is typically good at getting separation behind the linebackers and is a complete mismatch more safeties. Occasionally blanketed on comeback routes, but overall very good 10-15 yards downfield.

15-20 yards

Similarly, his deeper crossing patterns are performed very well. When he has a route of this distance over the middle, he typically gains separation. The part of his game that his severely lacking is his back shoulder sideline catches. He has not shown an ability to work the sideline, or a prowess for contested catches. He may have just never worked on this area of his game, but acquiring this skill will be necessary at the NFL level.

20+ yards

Johnston has a solid deep ball. His ability to to up and catch the ball is one thing, but his willingness to fight through a corner blanketing him to do so is another. Johnston has good route running and ability down the field, but he is not good at fighting through contact while the ball is in the air, or kicking in that extra gear when overthrown.

Blocking:

Willingness

Usually not very willing to block. He will push his guy, and there are plays where he lowered his shoulder to help his teammate score a long touchdown, but his willingness to block on a play to play basis is rather low.

Technique

His technique is rather pitiful. He does not do much more than get in the way, and sometimes he misses entirely. Sometimes getting in the way is enough, but he has a long way to go in terms of actual technique and reliable effectiveness when blocking.

Attributes:

Attributes		Grade (/10)	Notes
Separation	Short	8.5	An 8.5/10 is otherworldly for a receiver his size. For context, none of the bigger-bodied wide receivers selected in the top 50 of 2022 (Drake London, Treylon Burks, Christian Watson) graded above a 5/10 in this category. Johnston can separate versus multiple coverage types on various routes from both outside and from the slot. He is not consistent in doing so, holding his grade below a 9/10, but excellent nonetheless. He also is great in the screen game and on end arounds, making him that more dangerous in the short game.
	Medium	8	Johnston is inconsistent between 5-15 yards downfield. He has excellent footwork on most of his comeback routes, but he sometimes is a bit off on his timing and the defender has time to recover. It is almost as though he practices this picture-perfect footwork when training, then just does it on command without a thought as to what the corner is doing on the field. This could easily jump to a 9+ with more experience, but as it stands, he is inconsistent when staying in his original zone 5-15 yards out. Crossing patterns, on the other hand, are where Johnston thrives.
	Deep	8	This is hesitantly up at an 8/10 because Johnston does have great downfield separation. He often finds himself alone, and that is partially due to his ability to make a corner trip over himself. The reason this is hesitantly and 8 is because he lacks the contested catch success that his height, vertical ability, and prestige as a prospect indicate that he should have.
Release	Stance	9.5	Solid stance with very few unnecessary steps at the line. He is prone to the occasional dropstep, but it does not affect his gameplay.
	Acceleration	9	His acceleration is that much more impressive at his size. He can burst off of the line linearly and laterally, leaving pressed defenders in the dust. His twitch and advanced route tree ensure that the corner cannot predict his route based on his body movement. This is a 9/10 because there are smaller prospects with slightly better burst, but with a 42" vertical at 6'4, there are certainly none other at his size.
	Hip Control	7.5	Johnston may have great hip control, but it is not elite. This is seen more after the catch than on his release, but a bit more work on changing levels should improve his game as a whole.
Hands	Catch Reliability	3.5	Aside from not catching the occasional underthrown low ball, JSN has very reliable hands. He catches everything thrown his way as long as it is mostly on target.
	Catch Radius	6	Saying he has a 14% drop rate is almost sugar coating the situation. He has enough impressive catches, but he drops he has had are so blatant, and he makes easy catches look hard at time like they are athletic feats as opposed to simply snagging it with his hands. Contested Catch - 6'4 usually means a 9+ catch radius, but his effective catch radius is smaller than you would expect for his frame and arm length.
Versatility	Starting Position	9.5	He is effective out wide and from the slot. With his ability, I would not be surprised if he lines up in the backfield occasionally in the NFL as well. He is not as effective in line, and should not be asked to help in pass protection if he does ever line up in the backfield, but his ability to win on any type of route from anywhere on the field makes him incredibly versatile.
	Overall Skill Set	9.5	Giving him a near-perfect grade for overall skillset may seem odd. He has comparably poor hands, cannot block, and is not good at contested catch situations. Those all combine to bump him down half a peg, but his unique skillset projects him to single-handedly take an offense in need of weapons to the next level. He should be riddled with targets despite his college numbers, and has very learnable weaknesses. His range of outcomes seems to be anywhere from a solid X wide receiver to a generational talent, depending on his progression. Despite his glaring weaknesses, that potential earns him a near perfect grade.
RAC	Athleticism	9.5	His combination of size and twitch is simply unreal. His combine may not impress as much as expected for an athlete of his caliber, but what he can do on the field is unmatched by any other prospect in the last decade.
	Agility	7.5	Great agility overall, but he does not have the quick displacement seen more frequently by smaller gadget players.
	Contact Balance	7	Good contact balance, and can work his way around and through college corners, but he does not typically stay up against better tacklers.
Awareness	Sideline	4	Sideline catches are not seen often throughout his tape. Impressive toe taps may be in his repertoire, but the opportunity rarely presented itself at TCU.
	Defensive Scheme	7	It is difficult to tell how Johnston adlibs based on scheme. He recognizes coverage type and implements route subtleties accordingly, but does not maximize space often when sitting in a zone.
	Improvisation	3	Typically does not help extend the play for his mobile quarterback.

Full Report:

Quentin Johnston is one of the most unique wide receivers in the last decade. His twitch and RAC ability are practically unparalleled for a guy of his size. He can be used as a gadget player, gain separation in short areas, run an advanced route tree intermediately, and also beat guys over the top. There are many instances throughout his tape where he does something no one else can do, then follows it up with a blatant drop off of his chest several plays later. While there are few weaknesses to his game, his weaknesses are glaring. For one, he drops easy passes frequently. His recorded drops aren't him jumping up and failing to come down with it like you may expect. They are more so passes right to his chest several yards from the line of scrimmage. On top of that, he goes out of his way to catch with his body. He will jump several feet into the air to avoid catching the ball with his hands, which hurts his production in open space. To add onto this glaring issue, he is not remotely aggressive. He has excellent concentration in contested catch situations, but he will never out-muscle his opponent, which could become an issue at the next level against the more physical outside NFL corners. He is elite in nearly every relevant category for any type of wide receiver, but his lack of ball skills away from his body can be a drive killer. If coaches believe that they can fix his drop issue and help him become more aggressive, then they should pick him in the top 5. His skillset is truly unmatched, and he wins consistently at all levels of the field. His effective route tree is vast, and a bit of coaching will help him reliably separate from any defender as he has flashed throughout his tape. TCU did not manufacture him touches like what is seen among other big playmakers due to the team's success and undefeated record with their current style, so he could be even better at the next level in a higher priority role. Johnston will likely go inside the top 10, but it would be unsurprising if he falls slightly because of his drop issues.

NFL Projection:

Johnston will likely go inside the top 10. He will immediately be an impact player, and likely the focal point of the team that drafts him. He may have a frustrating rookie season filled with drops, but should be able to develop into a big time player who earns a hefty second contract.

Ideally, he gets with a coach who can help him overcome his tendency of playing less physically than his opposition. He has a big frame, and should be significantly better at contested catches than he is. If his hands improve and he develops under the right regime, then he could become one of the best receivers in the NFL.