2023 NFL Draft - Wide Receiver Rankings

Grades for the 2023 wide receiver class are all over the place. After going through the consensus top 10 play by play, I have quickly become more impressed with this class than I initially anticipated. These are bound to alter slightly throughout the off-season, but not too significantly because I personally value what I see on tape more than I do off-field metrics. I scouted the consensus top 10 wide receivers in class, which led to the list of 8, followed by 2 notable exclusions. This basically means that I am confident in who I have as my top 8, but still need to watch more tape on a few guys who may surpass players 9 and 10.

For each prospect, there is a link to their full scouting reports breaking down strengths, weaknesses, attributes, separation, etc. with a pro comp for each. There is also a link at the top of most of the reports to a blog format for an easier read. So, without further ado:

Top Eight Wide Receivers

       1.      Quentin Johnston

Johnston is the consensus wide receiver one, and it is difficult to find a draft board that disagrees. He truly is one of the most unique prospects over the last decade, and I have him graded as being worthy of a top 10 pick. He currently is my #4 non-QB in the draft, and there is not much that could happen this off-season barring injury that should change that too significantly.

The biggest knocks on him right now are his hands and aggression. He has drops riddled throughout his tape, and prefers catching with his body. I, for one, do not put much of an emphasis into catch reliability when scouting. I assume that athletes of his caliber will just figure it out. If I am wrong on occasion, then so be it. The only legitimate concern is really his physicality and willingness to go after the ball. He plays soft at times, and actively tries to avoid contact. That said, he is still the top wide receiver in this draft class. Any team that picks him should be able to start him comfortably as their X-receiver heading into the 2023 season.

       2.      Jaxon Smith-Njigba

This is where I break consensus. Let’s rewind one year. The big boards typically read Young, Stroud, Anderson, Carter, and then at #5, JSN. He went 95-1606 the same year Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson went 65-936 and 70-1058, respectively. He out-performed the #10 and #11 picks in the 2022 NFL Draft by over 500 yards, and the common narrative at the time was that he looked better than each of them on the field.

Unfortunately, he was injured in 2022 after just 40 passing snaps and only 8 targets on the season. This led to several valid reasons for concern. First, 34 of his 40 snaps in 2022 were from the slot. This means that Ohio State actively chose not to play him out wide. Second, will he be able to return as the same player he was in 2021 after the injury? Third, and least important in my opinion, he is not the caliber of athlete typically seen having success in the NFL.

The first reason does not concern me all that much. He was incredible from the slot in 2021, and Ohio State won games with him on the inside. There is no reason for them to move him outside with their roster constructed the way it is. Regardless, without a proven ability from the outside, he will not be a great fit for every NFL team. Teams that work heavily with 11 personnel or just generally operate more through the slot will find him more appealing since he has not proven an ability to win from the outside or work in two wide receiver sets. This may cause him to fall in the draft, but should not reflect too much on his natural ability as a wide receiver.

The injury is mildly concerning. We have not seen him on the field since, which may affect his performance. Hamstring injuries can linger, but he will have ample time to recover before training camp. This should not be an issue heading into next season, leaving rust as the primary concern.

As far as athleticism is concerned, just turn on the tape. Sure, he gets caught from behind and runs a 4.6 40-yard-dash, but it truly does not matter. His ability to separate is uncanny, and he will be an asset the next level. JSN will likely remain in the slot, but still could prove an ability to win from the outside if given the opportunity. He is a top 10 talent in this class, and should be able to back it up regardless of where he goes in the draft.

       3.      Jordan Addison

Addison feels like the darling of the draft. Everyone loves him, and there is a lot to like. Watching him on the field is a thing of beauty. He is so smooth in all aspects of his game, and plays the game like a natural athlete. His limitations honestly are not knocking him down as far as expected due to how strong he is at separating both from the slot and on the outside. He is undersized, lacks RAC ability, is weak at the catch point in traffic, and runs a 4.5 40-yard-dash.

This combination sounds awful on paper, but he is just too smooth out on the field to ignore. He has excellent play speed, and will likely beat that 40 time this off-season. He has excellent ball tracking, hands, and nuanced route running downfield. He can be a threat anywhere, and that is why he is firmly a first round pick despite his apparent weaknesses.

       4.      Josh Downs

Many people have a tier break after the top three, but Downs firmly belongs in the discussion. His ability to separate in short areas is incredible, and he somehow has a 72.2% contested catch rate on the season. In the NFL, he will likely be a slot receiver only as he was most of the time in college, and he does not demonstrate a gadget ability as is so often seen in guys with his stature. He is an excellent pure wide receiver, but his size in combination with his lack of blocking and RAC as a slot only player drops his grade into the early second round.

With my propensity to grade a bit more harshly across the board, he will likely end up inside my top 32 when all is said and done. He really is an amazing slot receiver, but his obvious limitations will restrict his role in an offense.

       5.      Jalin Hyatt

This is one of the few times I will increase a grade from what I saw on tape based on specific highlight plays. I value consistency for most wide receivers, but his role in the NFL will not revolve around getting consistent targets. His speed is unmatched, and his ability to separate downfield makes him a home run threat. If a team desperately needs a guy to take the top off of a defense, then Hyatt could be drafted in the late first, as the M.D.D. consensus big board currently indicates.

His grade is currently a mid-late second because he is a one-trick pony as it stands right now. He can develop into a solid intermediate route runner, but loses to contact too often to be an every down outside wide receiver. He will likely remain in the slot, where he primarily lines up for Tennessee, and will be asked to run double moves and go routes more often than not. While Hyatt has a valuable and unteachable skillset, there is a reason his grades vary from the first to the third round depending on the source.

     6.      Rashee Rice

Rice is a player who could either be selected in the first round right after the top three, or fall considerably later in the draft. The most important skill for wide receivers in the majority opinion is the ability to separate. Rice lacks that ability on all three levels of the field. His release is slower than expected for an athlete of his caliber, and he generally does not vary speeds along the route stem. This allows guys to stay on him easily, as supported by his 62.2 PFF grade into man coverage despite his overall 85.6 receiving grade.

His contested catch ability is the best in class, and makes for an amazing highlight reel. He also supposedly runs a 4.36 40-yard-dash, which does not show up on tape. He is a boom or bust prospect in my opinion. This is why his draft grades may vary so much. He has the potential to become an elite outside wide receiver, or he may flop entirely. Realistically, I think he becomes a solid number two or three option for a team, which is why I still have him graded as a late second round pick.

       7.      Zay Flowers

I keep seeing Flowers rise in mocks. I actually saw him inside the top 15 recently, which is absolutely wild. Many legitimate scouts seem to want to be in on Flowers and make him their “guy,” but I personally am not a part of that mindset. There are too many question marks to consider him inside the first round in my opinion.

Despite taking nearly 67% of his reps from outside, he will not be an outside receiver for the NFL. While guys like Josh Downs and Jaxon Smith-Njigba have always been slot guys, they at least both show an ability to win through contact and beat man coverage. Zay Flowers simply gets bullied on the outside, and often fails to pull away from his man. He has an even worse PFF grade than Rashee Rice in man coverage with a 59.4. Flowers will be a slot receiver whose tape indicates that he is unreliable at getting short area separation against man or zone.

With all that said, boy is he quick. He is truly lightning in a bottle. My grade for his acceleration and hip control are both 10/10. The shifty punt returner with 4.3 speed can stop on a dime, and start back up again instantly. He reminds me of Calvin Austin III coming out with 10-15 more pounds on him, not that size is his strong suit by any means. He is deserved of a mid day two pick with his playmaking ability and unbelievable speed and explosiveness. He just is not the route runner, nor does he have the size that is typically sought after for wide receivers going in the first round.

       8.      Parker Washington

Washington looks like a running back who consistently makes diving catches in the open field. His highlight catches are as athletic as you can get, and his contact balance at 5’10” 212lbs is elite for a wide receiver. I have seen his draft stock fall anywhere from the early second to the late fourth round. While I have him graded as a mid third talent, I could see him falling beyond that.

Not every team is going to covet his skillset. He is a mediocre route runner from the slot, and lacks top-end speed. While his unique build is enticing, he does not possess the ability to ever become a world beater with his traits and particular skillset. His success is going to depend heavily on the scheme and his utilization throughout his rookie contract.

Notable Exclusions

       9.       Kayshon Boutte

This one hurts. Really, it does. There were sources that had him ranked above JSN coming out of 2021 as the top receiver in class. When he officially declared, I was ecstatic to throw a wrench in first round mocks given what he showed before his injury. His 2021 season was remarkable with nine touchdowns through six games, but there is just no way I would take a shot on him early following his 2022 season.

Boutte needed a second surgery in March of last year on his right ankle. It is unclear what the precise reason was for his poor 2022 season, but he certainly was not the same player. He has poor separation numbers across the board, did not know how to work a zone underneath despite primarily working from the slot, had little to no burst or lateral quickness, and was poor in contested catch situations. Aside from great blocking and strong running after the catch, there was not much to indicate that Boutte was ever a great receiver. There were few flashes throughout the entire season to suggest that he would return to form, which is scary for teams to see heading into the draft.

I have him graded as a ‘pick 100-150’ player, and this does not feel disingenuous. It is rather generous based on his 2022 tape if I am being honest. I have no issue with someone disagreeing and shooting their shot on him earlier, but taking him early would be one of the scariest picks in the entire draft.

       10.   Cedric Tillman

I just do not like big guys who cannot separate if they do not display the speed or burst to suggest that they could improve at the next level. NFL cornerbacks are too good to allow guys to consistently win straight over them without first gaining separation. Tillman has great footwork and overall fundamentals, but I do not see him ever becoming anything special at the next level.

 

Takeaways

While this 2023 receiver class is thought to be the worst since 2019, there are still some excellent prospects in the first two rounds. Johnston and JSN are both better than many are crediting, and I have a higher grade on each of them than I did Garrett Wilson, who was my top receiver from last year. While Downs, Flowers, Hyatt, and Addison all are considered to be undersized, they each have attractive skillsets that could make them weapons at the next level. As always, utilization will determine the success of many of these young prospects. If they end up in the right places, then this wide receiver class may end up surprisingly strong when all is said and done.