Washington Commanders 2023 Off-Season Simulation
The 2023 NFL Off-Season Simulation is finally coming to a close. After multiple months of trade talks among the other two-hundred or so people involved and negotiations with designated agents in free agency, the 90-man-rosters are now complete.
I was once again the General Manager for the Washington Commanders this year,
and decided to take this opportunity to see what it would be like to build
around Sam Howell. Having a 2023 cap number of $960,400 allows the franchise to
pay out some big contracts for at least the next three years assuming Howell
works out. That said, nearly all of the external free agent contracts were
one-year deals to hedge Sam Howell's promotion to starter. It is his job to lose, so all of our moves revolved around getting the best talent around him as humanly possible. So without further ado, let's jump right into it.
Starting Point
The initial roster began with 61 players, including the practice squad guys:
While a bit rough around the edges, there are certainly some bright spots. The receiving trio is excellent for a young quarterback, and the
starters across the defensive line are solid even without Da’Ron Payne. The two
starting offensive tackles are serviceable, but upgrades will surely be
considered. Regardless of the opinion on the starting roster, it is clear that
depth is needed across the board.
Philosophy
With the goal of building around Sam Howell, certain positions may
require a higher priority than others. For this simulation, I focused heavily
on fixing the depth, particularly along the offensive and defensive lines.
Assuming the offensive line has strong starters after making some acquisitions,
we do not want to end up like in 2022 when we seemed to be shuffling guys around
every week. Whether it is because of injury or performance, we need strong
depth so that any certain position across the offensive line cannot be easily
exploited and impede the development of our young quarterback. This means that we need guys who are capable of starting in multiple positions, while ideally not having to swap as often throughout the season.
Across the defensive line, we had too many mediocre edge rushers
taking too many snaps in 2022. James Smith-Williams with 506, Efe Obada with
391, and Casey Toohill with 347 snaps last season is unacceptable at their current
levels of production. Chase Young is now healthy and will mitigate much of that, but an effective rotation is always necessary to maintain positive production regardless of the starters.
Payne and Allen were studs along the interior, but a viable rotation is still needed. Second round rookie Phidarian
Mathis was unfortunately injured in 2022, leaving Ridgeway to be the primary rotational
guy. With a PFF grade of 48.9, he certainly was not the most impactful
rotational asset. We go into this year assuring that the depth is solid
whether or not we are able to retain Da’Ron Payne.
We also wanted to capitalize on players who may request a strong
trade value on the last year of their contract and we are likely unable to pay next
year. After we put the franchise tag on Da’Ron Payne (spoiler), we wanted to
attempt to trade one of either him or Montez Sweat. If we can get good capital
back from either when we would not be able to pay both of them next year, then that
is a huge success. We also were shopping Antonio Gibson, although he obviously
did not warrant similar capital to the defensive linemen. Lastly, we tested the
market of Curtis Samuel, but ultimately wanted to keep him for Howell despite him being on
the final year of his contract.
The two player trades that ended up going through were:
If the offensive weapons stay healthy, Howell stays upright, and the defense can reliably put us in decent field position, then Howell will have the best chance of success. Instead of revealing the decisions in chronological order, I will break down what happened by position.
Quarterback
Sam Howell is the guy. It is his job to lose, and we did not
actively look for other starters after cutting Carson Wentz. We also allowed
Heinicke to test external free agency. Although we really wanted him to return,
he deserved the opportunity to see if he could get starter money elsewhere.
When he did not find more money elsewhere, we brought him back on a one-year
deal of $7,000,000.
We also offered Jacoby Brissett an inferior offer, but he accepted more money to back up Kyler Murray in Arizona. Our quarterback room concluded with Howell leading the way, Heinicke backing him up, and Jake Fromm fighting for a spot as number three. No other quarterbacks were considered in the draft beyond the four consensus first rounders, none of whom made it past pick 5 of the NFL Draft. Below is the final quarterback room on the 90-man-roster:
Running Back
I firmly believe in a revolving door of rookie running backs. If
you can capitalize on your existing backs via trade and never sign a high-end
extension, then you always have young fresh legs and resources that can be
allocated elsewhere. Heading into the off-season, we had Brian Robinson Jr.,
Antonio Gibson, Jaret Patterson, and J.D. McKissic.
We began by trading away Gibson in a package for Devin White to
bolster our weakest link on defense. In free agency, we did not offer a single
running back contract. Instead, we used picks 193 (6th round) and
256 (compensatory 7th) to acquire two guys who can complement
Robinson.
Keaton Mitchell was selected first as the undersized homerun
hitter who can be used as a weapon and hopefully develop more into a receiving
back as well. Evan Hull was selected second as more of an every down
rotational piece. He has had a stellar off-season, showing out at the Senior
Bowl and having a solid combine. While this duo does not necessarily consist of
high profile players, the value that they can provide as late day three picks
is significantly higher than most other positions would at that stage of the
draft.
After the draft, two undrafted free agents were extended offers:
Chris Rodriguez was offered $35,000 guaranteed by Dallas, but
Tiyon Evans accepted our offer. Evans has the stature and athletic profile to
really impress as a two-down back in training camp if all goes his way. The 5’9”
225lbs gap runner ran a 4.52 40-yard-dash and is explosive enough to earn a spot
on an NFL roster.
This truly is a training camp battle with only Brian Robinson Jr. guaranteed a spot on the 53-man-roster. It is most likely that Evan Hull, Keaton Mitchell, and JD McKissic are the other three, but Patterson and Evans could certainly carve out roles for themselves. Below is the final running back room on the 90-man-roster:
Wide Receiver
Wide receiver was not addressed too significantly in free agency.
We entered the off-season with Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, Curtis Samuel,
Dyami Brown, Dax Milne, Alex Erickson, Marken Michel, and Kryic McGowan. We
believe that the core of our three starters along with Dyami Brown sprinkling
in more throughout the season with his old North Carolina quarterback throwing
him the ball is among the best in the league. We may not have a duo like
Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins or Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, but our top
three in a heavy 11 personnel system are right up there with the best.
We brought Cam Sims back on a one-year, $1,300,000 deal, and
signed veteran Marvin Jones Jr. to a one-year, $2,000,000 deal. No other offers were
extended to wide receivers in free agency.
In the draft, we ended up trading up in the 5th round for Michael
Wilson. The trade did not cost us any draft picks, sending picks 155 and 215
for picks 145 and 256. We typically would stand pat this late in the draft, but we
have an early-mid third round grade on Wilson and did not want to risk him being taken before us – Michael
Wilson Scouting Report.
After the draft, we added three more undrafted free agents:
One area lacking among our three starters is height. None of the
UDFA wide receivers we signed are under 6’4. This distinct difference may help
one of them separate himself enough to earn a role on the 53-man-roster.
While McLaurin, Dotson, and Samuel are guaranteed roster spots, the
other spots can still be earned with a good training camp. We have our
expectations that the remaining three spots will be comprised of Michael
Wilson, Marvin Jones Jr., and Dyami Brown, but we brought in a plethora of
competition. Also, with the addition of Keaton Mitchell, Milne will not be
missed as the return specialist if he does not make the roster as a receiver.
Our final wide receivers on the 90-man-roster are:
Tight End
While the tight end position could certainly be upgraded, it was not
a glaring need per se. We could have elected to bring in more bodies to compete,
but did not want to clog the roster with talent on par with what we already have.
High-end tight ends were considered in the draft, but no offers were made in
free agency.
After the draft, we reassessed the position. Logan Thomas, Cole Turner, Armani Rodgers, and Curtis Hodges all are better pass catchers than they are blockers. We brought in two undrafted free agents who both excel at blocking to compete for a starting roster spot:
This is another position where a true training camp battle will take place. Logan Thomas and John Bates are more likely than not going to earn a spot on the 53-man-roster, although their spots still are not guaranteed. The final spot is wide open. Without a fullback after cutting Alex Armah, we may even be able to keep four on the active roster, although it is unlikely. Whoever can prove themselves the most in camp and perhaps even make a difference on special teams should be able to earn the final spot on the roster or at least guarantee himself a role on the practice squad.
Our final tight ends on the 90-man-roster are:
Offensive Line
The offensive line was addressed heavily both in free agency and
in the draft. Internally, Wes Schweitzer was brought back on a three-year
$15,000,000 contract (5mil AAV), and Tyler Larsen was brought back on a veteran
minimum contract. Schweitzer can play either guard or center, and is overall a
solid player who can fill in wherever needed and not be a liability. Larsen is
a fine backup as well, although it is still possible that he does not make the
53-man-roster.
In external free agency, offers were extended to Isaiah Wynn, Will Hernandez, La’el Collins, Andre Dillard, Wyatt Davis, and Trai Turner, who tested the open market. Below are the contracts offered compared with each contract that was ultimately awarded by another franchise:
Okay, so maybe we low-balled Collins, but he was not a priority target anyway. The only priority target of this bunch was Will Hernandez since our only current potential starting guards are Norwell and Schweitzer, both of whom are better served as strong depth pieces.
The players who accepted our offers were Isaiah Wynn on a
one-year, $3,500,000 deal, and Wyatt Davis on a one-year, $1,100,000 deal. Wynn
may have had a down year at right tackle and left guard this year, especially
in the Cleveland game, but he was actually quite solid at left tackle his
previous three seasons. He is an inexpensive swing tackle who could perhaps even earn a starting spot. Either way, we were thrilled to get him
for only $3,500,000, even if he is only a depth piece.
While guard is still a need, we at
least now have viable pieces that can be shifted around if need be since Cosmi
and Wynn could both potentially play guard as well. That said, bolstering the
offensive line was still the top priority of the NFL Draft. We used a first and
one of our two second round picks acquired via trade on offensive linemen.
Pick 19 was used on Broderick Jones.
The 21-year-old redshirt sophomore has all of the physical tools to become a
stud left tackle, but is not quite there yet. Sitting for one year at left
guard will hopefully allow him to gain the experience he needs while working on
his technique and getting comfortable in his body. We are hoping that he has a
strong season, and perhaps even take over at left tackle by 2024.
Pick 47 was used on Steve Avila. He is
a solid interior offensive lineman who can play either center or guard. He is
currently designated to be our starting right guard, but with Roullier
constantly injured and the positional flexibility of Schweitzer, Wynn, and Cosmi, his position may alter
slightly by the start of the season.
Although we do not want to spend so
much capital effectively on guards for 2023, the long-term outlook of
developing a strong offensive line in front of Howell outweighs any conceptual
adverse thought of where to allocate early draft capital.
Following the draft, we released Nolan Laufenberg, Aaron Monteiro, and Keaton Sutherland. With so many players both signed for higher contracts and the draft capital spent on the offensive line, we cleared our backups who have practically no chance of making the 53-man-roster. This created openings at other positions where UDFAs and other fliers would more realistically be able to compete for a spot. Our final offensive linemen on the 90-man-roster are:
Defensive Line
After trading away Da’Ron Payne for
decent capital and acquiring no dead cap or cash obligations, the starting four
across the defensive line are still solid. Montez Sweat and Chase Young on the
ends are theoretically excellent if Young can return to form, Jonathan Allen is
more of the interior pass rusher, and Phidarian Mathis should be a good
plug-and-play interior run defender. Beyond these four, depth is severely
lacking.
The interior was prioritized due to the loss of Payne and overall inferior depth than on the outside, which would be serviceable heading into the season if needed. We offered three contracts to interior defensive linemen who could provide value as rotational pieces. All three accepted:
Khalen Saunders is a bigger lineman
who should be able to rotate effectively with Mathis, while Hurst and Tillery
can work more effectively on passing downs. Both Hurst and Tillery were
incredible pass rushers in college who have since underperformed. Paying all
three players one-year, $3,500,000 prove-it deals is a low risk investment
which should allow us to extend who ever steps up throughout the course of the
season. Although Da’Ron Payne has been traded, this strength should remain a
strength with Jonathan Allen leading a significantly more talented group of
rotational players than we had last year. This is not to say that losing Payne
will not hurt, but our defensive interior should at least remain towards the
top of the positional power rankings across the NFL.
Defensive end is a position that was
not addressed before the draft aside from re-signing Efe Obada for one-year,
$1,300,000. That said, we entered the draft wanting to put more young talent
behind Young and Sweat, which is exactly what we did. We traded up in the
second round from pick 48 up to pick 40, which only cost us a fifth round pick
(pick 152), to get Felix Anudike-Uzomah. He was our primary second round target
going into the draft to fit our scheme as a hand-in-the-dirt 4-3 base end who
can make an impact immediately as a rookie. We have a first round grade on him
as well – Felix
Anudike-Uzomah Scouting Report.
Additionally, we added Eku Leota in
the 7th. He was our primary defensive late round target, and we were
thrilled to scoop him up so late in the draft. Injuries hampered his
development and production, but his first step is excellent. As a late round
pick, he has the tools that we can work with to hopefully develop him into a
solid rotational pass rusher. Either way, a 7th round pick is not a
heavy investment, and we believe that we got an absolute steal.
Finally, we made three cuts along the defensive front with so many other resources allocated to bringing in new talent. David Bada, Benning Potoa’e, and William Bradley-King were all released because they had virtually no chance of making the 53-man-roster due to the other personnel decisions prioritized throughout the off-season. Our final defensive linemen on the 90-man-roster are:
Linebackers
The Washington linebacking core was
among the worst in the league last season. Heading into the off-season, the
only linebackers on the roster were Jamin Davis, De’Jon Harris, and Drew White. Harris
and White should not even be second string players on most rosters, so the
linebacker position was thoroughly addressed.
First, we re-signed David Mayo to a one-year,
$1,500,000 contract, Jon Bostic on with the Veteran Salary Benefit, and let
Cole Holcomb test free agency. We then traded for Devin White, who, alongside
Davis, will already improve the linebacking core from 2022. Holcomb ended up
signing back with us on a three-year, $15,000,000 contract ($5,000,000 AAV).
In free agency, we submitted low-ball
offers to Khaleke Hudson and Germaine Pratt, on top of ultimately signing
Jaylon Smith to a one-year deal worth $2,100,000. Smith should provide
much-needed depth on a very friendly contract.
Heading into the draft, our starting
three are Devin White, Cole Holcomb, and Jamin Davis. The Devin White trade
instantly makes this supposed weakness at least somewhat close to a strength.
Since we play a lot of nickel, depth is not as important with often only two
linebackers on the field. For this reason, we did not address the position in
the draft.
What we did do is bring in undrafted free agents to compete for roster spots. We extended three offers:
Ryan Greenhagen and Ventrell Miller
accepted, while Aubrey Miller Jr. went to Atlanta. It is unknown at this stage
whether Miller will be healthy enough to even compete in training camp, but we
liked him enough to at least give him a shot as a weakside linebacker. Greenhagen
is more of a downhill middle linebacker who can be a good run stopper up the
middle despite being slower overall.
We love the core of Devin White, Jamin Davis, Cole Holcomb, and Jaylon Smith, who each bring rather different skillsets to the table. Although we did not address depth in the draft, the remaining roster spots are wide open. Our final linebackers on the 90-man-roster are:
Cornerbacks
Many people would consider cornerback
a weakness going into the 2023 season. Although it certainly is not a strength,
at least we are not losing any starting outside cornerbacks to free agency.
This gives us a great baseline. Danny Johnson was re-signed for three years,
$10,000,000 ($3,333,333 AAV), and Rachad Wildgoose was re-signed as an
exclusive rights free agent (EFRA).
When free agency hit, we were determined to add a veteran to our roster. Unfortunately, the market for cornerback in this simulation went a bit off the rails. Here was our first wave of offers, along with their final landing spots:
While the Byron Murphy and Sean Murphy-Bunting offers were actually not far off from what proceeded to happen in the actual NFL, they were borderline insulting in this simulation. On top of those two, we offered to make Jamel Dean the highest paid cornerback in the NFL before the Vikings came in and shattered our proposal. We figured if we signed Dean, then we did not want to risk taking on multiple big cornerback contracts, hence the distribution of initial offers.
We went into our second wave of offers thinking that we will just accumulate depth, and be forced into taking a cornerback early in the draft. Below were our offers in our second wave of free agency along with their final landing spots:
We were close with Apple, and submitted
an identical offer to Peterson. Both took their talents elsewhere. At this
point, we went back to the drawing board and submitted two final offers. We
decided that with our resources, it would be okay to overpay an outside
cornerback if it meant upgrading our secondary. At this point, Casey Hayward
was cut as well, so we extended him and James Bradberry our final offers.
James Bradberry signed a three-year,
$60,600,000 contract ($20,200,000 AAV), and Casey Hayward was signed on a
one-year deal worth $5,600,000. These signings give flexibility in the
secondary. At a minimum, we now have Kendall Fuller, James Bradberry, Casey
Hayward, and Benjamin St-Juste, who can all play outside, with Danny Johnson taking
the slot. Fuller can also play slot when needed, but will likely start outside
opposite Bradberry.
In the draft, pick 118 was used on
TCU’s Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson. He will likely just be slot guy, which allows
Fuller to stay outside more often when needed. Although drafting another
outside corner may have theoretically been more beneficial, Hodges-Tomlinson
dropping into the fourth round was just too much value to pass up.
After the draft, DaMarcus Fields and Tariq Castro-Fields were cut, while Cam Dantzler was signed as a late addition to fill out the cornerback room. Our final cornerbacks on the 90-man-roster are:
Safety
Safety was the least addressed
position across the board prior to UDFA signings. We re-signed the special
teams superstar Jeremy Reaves with the right of first refusal ($2,629,000).
Although we are very content with Kamren Curl and Darrick Forest as our
starting safeties, we also signed strong safety Adrian Amos to a one-year,
$4,300,000 deal that we honestly thought was a low-ball offer.
We did not draft any safeties or extend any other offers in free agency. We also ended up cutting Ferrod Gardner and Troy Apke prior to bringing in undrafted free agents. Our strong safety spots are filled with Kamren Curl, Adrian Amos, and Jeremy Reaves, but free safety is essentially wide open. Forrest has the job for now with Percy Butler behind him, but we brought in three undrafted free agents to compete for a free safety roster spot:
While certainly not guaranteed a roster spot, any of these players who prove to be valuable on special teams and can perform well in a pinch have a shot at the starting roster. Our final safeties on the 90-man-roster are:
Special Teams
Luckily, our kicker, punter, and long-snapper are all solid and on contract heading into the off-season:
Jeremy Reaves earned a spot on the roster after making the Pro Bowl last year for special teams, and many of the newly acquired younger players have a better shot at making the roster if they impress on special teams as well. Keaton Mitchell is likely going to be the return specialist, but that position is still up for grabs. We have the personnel to have a strong special teams, and should be average at a minimum like we were last year heading into the upcoming season.
Off-Season Summary
Trades
Final Cuts
Internal Free Agency
External Free Agency
NFL Draft
2024 Draft Capital
*The
Detroit 2024 day two pick is conditional regarding playoff berth.
UDFA
Since cash means nothing to us
pseudo-GMs in simulations, I tried to be reasonable with UDFA guarantees.
$150,000 in guaranteed bonuses were allocated to undrafted free agent offers. The
higher priority UDFAs received $15,000 in guaranteed bonuses, while the lower priority
UDFAs received $6,000.
Only players at certain positions were given offers based on current roster construction. The positions where UDFAs could realistically earn a roster spot are running back, wide receiver, linebacker, tight end, and free safety. Below are all of our UDFA offers:
Below are all undrafted free agents who accepted our offers:
Final 90-Man-Roster
Remaining Cap Space
We restructured six contracts to add as much talent this year as possible; balancing that with many one-year contracts as to provide some flexibility moving forward:
Once the 90-man-roster was completed, we still had $3,959,933 in cap space heading into the season. We wanted to have three to five million left over in case in-season moves became necessary. While these restructures push back cap responsibilities, we have some players likely to get cut in 2024 who will free up a lot more cap space:
Conclusion
All in all, we feel as though we had a
strong off-season. Most of the contracts were one-year deals, thus not impacting
our future too heavily. We were able to acquire future draft capital without
sacrificing our current strength, and we met our objective of building an
incredibly strong team around Howell. If Howell does not work out, we have some
additional draft capital to move up in the 2024 NFL Draft and no cap responsibilities beyond
2025 aside from our newly drafted rookies, $5,600,000 to McLaurin, and $700,000
to Norwell from their existing contracts when we took over. Not only is our team significantly stronger following the off-season, but we also have a more than manageable situation moving forward if
certain players do not work out as expected.
The offensive line should be drastically
improved with significantly better depth than in 2022 as well. Every single
position group aside from defensive tackle either remained stagnant or improved
in some capacity from last season, and even there we acquired better depth. The
rotation along the edge with Chase Young returning and Felix Anudike-Uzomah stepping in
will be a major strength of this team as well. In the secondary, we retained
all valuable assets and added James Bradberry, Casey Hayward Jr., and Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson.
At linebacker, we traded for Devin White to address the weakness in the middle.
With an incredible defense across the board, an upgraded offensive front, and an already strong receiving core, Howell has everything he needs to lead this team to the promised land.
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