AFC Mock Off-Season Scenarios: Patriots - Raiders - Browns - Titans

These four teams are not where they would like to be thus far in 2025. I selected one team from each division in the AFC to demonstrate potential off-season scenarios in 2026 based on their current trajectories. This is not what I think will happen, or even what I would do necessarily, but these are simply paths the organizations could take to get their franchises back on track.

CLEVELAND BROWNS

The Browns are the most difficult team to get excited about from a financial standpoint with all of the money tied up in Deshaun Watson. Watson has one year left on his deal, and nearly $134-million remaining in guarantees.

If this team wants to try and win now, they will likely restructure him AGAIN to reduce his 2026 cap hit down to around $45-million. That is also the simplest solution, but I will argue that the Browns are not ready to compete. Why push all this dead money further back when Cleveland could finally start fresh?

This scenario may not be sexy, but here is what it accomplishes:

1. Removes Deshaun Watson from the roster (post-June 30 cut).

2. Gives the rookie quarterbacks drafted in 2025 a fighting chance to prove their worth.

3. Allows the organization to hold lots of young talent on the 53-man-roster to assess for the future.

Final Roster, Cap Overview, and Acquisitions

More information (cuts, restructures, cap breakdowns, etc.): Cleveland Browns Simulation

Major Takeaways

In order to be cap compliant after cutting Watson, the Browns need to bring back several free agents with significant 2026 dead cap. This allows void years to be tacked onto the contracts, redistributing the cap hits while giving only a vet min salary (in addition to their new signing bonus for fair compensation). IF the organization does not want to bring back at least two of Wyatt Teller, Joel Bitonio, and David Njoku, then cutting Watson this year becomes significantly more difficult.

Unfortunately, this process pretty much negates the 2027 cap savings of cutting Watson by adding void money to other contracts and pushing back their existing cap hits. The benefits are that Watson is no longer in the locker room and the offensive line is at least stable enough to support a rookie (hopefully). The downside is that significantly less money can be spent towards external free agents in 2026.

The new players acquired in this scenario are uninspiring to say the least, but tough decisions must be made because of the Watson contract. Many people claim that the cap is fake due to so all of the ways contracts can be adjusted to seemingly come up with money out of nowhere, but the Browns (and the Saints) have really backed themselves into a difficult bookkeeping spot.

The good news is that the Browns previously traded for an extra 2026 first round pick. This allows them to select the clear best player in the draft at pick three (after two QBs went in the mock), and still address their needs. A defensive line of Myles Garrett, Maliek Collins, Mason Graham, and Ruebin Bain Jr. may be the best in the entire league. This trump card, along with either Dillon Gabriel or Shedeur Sanders at the helm should at least keep fans watching despite their temporary cap disadvantage.

Three of the next four picks were offensive linemen. If the young quarterbacks are to have any chance at proving themselves, they need a better line. The one nearly unacceptable aspect of this scenario is that it didn't get Dawand Jones / Cornelius Lucas out of the right tackle position. Perhaps the Browns should have instead taken Spencer Fano or Francis Mauigoa at pick three, but passing on a potential elite talent in Reubin Bain Jr. is not optimal practice when rebuilding a roster.

Summary

This defense could continue to be a top five unit. They lost Greg Newsome II and Martin Emerson, but sacrifices had to be made to get Deshaun Watson out of the locker room. This offensive line should be upgraded, hopefully improving from a bottom five unit to at least the low 20s. The right tackle is really an issue, and maybe a UDFA or cheaper vet can beat out Jones and Lucas in training camp.

If Gabriel or Shedeur can rely on the dynamic duo of Judkins and Sampson and get the ball out quickly, then this offense shouldn't be too dreadful. An elite defense to get field position and some old school ground and pound on offense is still a recipe for success. If either quarterback can show signs of life, then so will this team with Watson finally out of Cleveland.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Fans thought this team was better than their roster would otherwise dictate, and that always felt odd to me. I'm not the biggest Josh McDaniels believer, the receiving core is questionable at best, and the offensive line is no better. Sure, the defense has pieces, particularly along the defensive interior, but has its weaknesses as well.

With the Drake Maye rookie contract window quickly closing, this scenario displays one path New England can take if they go all in. I have them taking a play out of Adam Peters' and every high school Madden player's handbook and trading away their future for a chance to take it all. Here are the objectives:

1. Set up Drake Maye to succeed. "Just good enough" is not good enough on offense.

2. Get after the quarterback. This defensive line is one elite piece away from being top 5 in the NFL.

3. Ensure enough depth to not hand away a potential playoff win because of one injury.

Final Roster, Cap Overview, and Acquisitions

More information (cuts, restructures, cap breakdowns, etc.): New England Patriots Simulation

Major Takeaways

We'll start with the elephant in the room: the trades. Are they realistic?

Trade One - The Saints are in absolute cap hell. Chris Olave has not been available to them, and there are trade rumors currently circulating. I think they will be thrilled if a second round pick can be included in the total compensation package.

Trade Two - As I said before, good enough is not good enough. Significant improvements must be made to this offensive line. That said, Moses and Bradbury are still capable. The Giants could use a capable right tackle and center. A couple of day three picks for two aging, adequate vets seems entirely fair and beneficial for both teams.

Trade Three - As a Commanders fan, maybe I went overboard here. Commanders need draft picks for rookie contracts after Adam Peters traded all of them away. The Patriots are able to trade way up into the third round to get a guy who can help win right now. Kyle Dugger was more of a throw-in than anything after his issues in 2025.

But is this team ready to win? Drake Maye certainly is. A Detroit-style one-two-punch of Jonah Coleman and TreVeyon Henderson could be deadly, and Rhamondre Stevenson as RB3 will still be involved. The better wide receivers on the team from 2025 are still on the roster, but as backups. Chris Olave, Jauan Jennings, and 2nd-round-pick Makai Lemon are vast upgrades with diverse skill sets, allowing the 2025 Pats receivers to get on the field when needed after inevitable injury.

The offensive line is the most interesting part of this offense. Jared Wilson has been playing guard in 2025, where he only took 93 total snaps in his four year college career. Moving him back to center should improve his play. Braden Smith is a massive upgrade over Morgan Moses, and the addition of Francis Mauigoa will improve any offensive line. He may have played right tackle in college, but that doesn't stop NFL teams from trying these top-10 draft picks at left tackle. If he isn't as good in camp at left tackle as Will Campbell, then Campbell can swing back out, and Onwenu and Mauigoa can take the guard spots. Either way, these five players are better than the five from 2025 as a unit, and I personally think that Will Campbell can become an all-pro guard.

The defensive side of the ball is ready to compete against anyone. Adding Trey Hendrickson to a line with Milton Williams, Christian Barmore, and Harold Landry, while also bringing in Haason Reddick as a pass rusher has completely transformed this line to rival the best in the league. They can swap to a 4-3 front, which defensive coordinator Terrell Williams primarily saw in Detroit, while still having the pieces to run a 3-4. The added talent and versatility up front, along with strong depth and rotational pieces, should upgrade this unit tremendously from last year.

If Christian Gonzalez stays healthy, this could theoretically be a top five defense in the league. Listing a day three pick as a starting safety isn't ideal, but that's also why Kamari Ramsey was drafted in the early third round.

Maybe not having a day two pick in 2027 will hurt, but the Patriots still have eight picks, including their first, heading into the year. If Drake Maye is as talented as he is pegged to be and this coaching staff continues to inspire confidence, then this Patriots roster could legitimately contend the Buffalo Bills for the division in 2026.

TENNESSEE TITANS

Give Cam a chance! Has the coaching staff helped him in any capacity? No. Has he looked good despite them? Also no, but it's hard to blame him. This general manager paid up for subpar offensive linemen, perhaps thinking that high dollar amounts would transform them into better players. This line may be locked in for the near future due to poor management, but the Titans can at least hit a mini-reset after having back-to-back first overall picks and surround Cam Ward with competent coaches and offensive weapons to compensate.

Below are the objectives of this scenario:

1. Hire a new coaching staff.

2. Surround Cam Ward with weapons.

3. Buy a defense.

Final Roster, Cap Overview, and Acquisitions

More information (cuts, restructures, cap breakdowns, etc.): Tennessee Titans Simulation

Major Takeaways

Jeff Hafley and Derrick Ansley are highly desirable head coach and defensive coordinator candidates from Green Bay. For offensive coordinator, I was initially thinking Mike McDaniel. I still believe he is a great offensive mind who just didn't have what it takes to be an equally talented head coach. With him still employed by the Dolphins as of this moment and the Titans roster lacking ideal skill sets for his Shanahan-derived scheme, I went with Wes Phillips.

Phillips has been the OC for the Vikings since 2022. He signed a contract extension through 2026 this past off-season, but there is a stipulation allowing him to leave for either a HC position or a play-calling OC position. With a defensive mind in Hafley at HC, this feels like an excellent place for Phillips to prove himself without Kevin O'Connell.

With lots of money to spend, I went to work buying a defense. Aside from Jeffrey Simmons and T'Vondre Sweat, this defensive line is devoid of talent. If you have not picked up on this pattern, I strongly believe in building the trenches. Tennessee brings Devonte Wyatt south from Green Bay to stay with his old coaching staff, and pays Jaelan Phillips a one-year "prove it" deal. Devin Lloyd is paid top-5 LB money to be the leader in the middle of this defense, and Cam Taylor-Britt was given a low to modest amount to play across from L'Jarius Sneed.

The Jets also trade up to pick 1.01 for a quarterback in this scenario. Tennessee also departs with Calvin Ridley, who is not living up to his contract and being vastly outperformed by Ayomanor. In return, they get a package of picks along with Will McDonald IV. McDonald is immediately the best edge rusher in town and should make a difference long-term.

In the draft, David Bailey was added in the second round with the Jets' former pick, and I was very close to also adding Joshua Josephs in the third. The law of diminishing returns and inability of Dan Moore Jr. caused the pivot to Austin Barber, who can hopefully take over for him after we likely cut him in 2027.

The offense is also filled with young talent. Jordyn Tyson, Denzel Boston, and Elic Ayomanor, along with the addition of Kyle Pitts, should be able to be moved around and used to their strengths, as well as provide Cam Ward with playmakers above the rim when needed.

The addition of Ken Walker III should add some much needed juice to this backfield, and Kaytron Allen can spell Walker to hopefully help keep him healthy. While this team may not be ready to win a Super Bowl, this is enough to get fans excited. Lots of young talent on both sides of the ball, a new coaching staff, and improvements to every aspect of this team (aside from the offensive line) should put this team in a position to really start winning in 2027.

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

Similarly to the Titans, this offensive line is abysmal. After week three in 2025, Ashton Jeanty had more yards after contact than total rushing yards on the season. Even after week four, over 95% of his yards had still come after contact.

Can Pete Carroll win with Geno Smith as his quarterback? I don't know, but the goal of this scenario is to find out. Bringing a rookie quarterback into this situation would be terrible, so let's improve the situation, give this team a chance to thrive on offense, and then reconsider a rookie quarterback next year when the situation will not immediately ruin him.

Below are the primary objectives of this scenario:

1. Get the offense ready to compete.

2. Create a mercenary defense. Prioritize one-year contracts to keep 2027 cap space open.

3. See what this team could look like without Maxx Crosby.

Final Roster, Cap Overview, and Acquisitions

More information (cuts, restructures, cap breakdowns, etc.): Las Vegas Raiders Simulation

Major Takeaways

Offensive Line. Spencer Fano and Gennings Dunker on the right; Jackson Powers-Johnson back to center where he belongs; Alijah Vera-Tucker joins Kolton Miller on the left. Three of the four backups were starters in 2025, thus providing necessary depth to this line that will see 30-40+ run blocking snaps per week.

The backfield has a home run hitter in Breece Hall to pair with Ashton Jeanty, allowing this team to hand the ball off on as many snaps as necessary (just as Pete Carroll thinks it ought to be). Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer allow the Raiders to run or pass out of heavy sets, and Mo Alie-Cox was brought in as that third blocking tight end.

Although the plan is clear, that doesn't make this a one dimensional offense. Maxx Crosby was shipped away for a haul of DJ Moore, Tyrique Stevenson, and two second round picks. DJ Moore seems to be the odd man out in Chicago and they could use Maxx Crosby to raise their defense to the next level with Caleb Williams still on a rookie contract, so it feels like a good trade for both teams.

If this offense cannot succeed as structured, then Geno Smith and this coaching staff are likely both not the answers long-term.

The weakness of creating a mercenary defense of one-year deals is that there are a lot of question marks. Big, backloaded, long-term contracts were not given to superstars in order to save future cap space, but the defense may not hold up in one of the hardest divisions in football.

That said, the defense isn't abysmal. Maybe 'good enough' will be good enough to allow this offense to maintain time of possession and win tight, feisty games against their division rivals. If any of the rookies can step into major roles on the defensive side, then this team is not only in good shape for 2026, but potentially for years to come.

Final Upshot

Teams can go in so many different directions, so hopefully these scenarios at least gave some food for thought when it comes to future outlooks. I am bound to be incorrect with many of these contract values, but most of them should be within the right ball park. The point of this exercise is not necessarily to predict exact dollar values, but to provide a big picture for these struggling franchises.

When hope seems lost, know that the state of a franchise can flip on its head in a single year. Even the Browns have hope for the future after too many years of Deshaun Watson holding them hostage. At the end of the day, every off-season is a chance for a fresh start. It is important to go through all possible scenarios for teams to optimize their future outlooks. The right moves could be the difference between another lost season and chance at greatness.