Cap Compliancy & Cutting Watson
How can this team cut Deshaun Watson this off-season and still be cap compliant? Well, it isn't pretty, but here's one realistic scenario that would do the job.
The effective cap space of the Cleveland Browns is -$50,699,099 at this point in the season. This includes the cap from all players, draft capital, dead money, void money that accelerates if certain players are not extended, and UDFA minimum contracts to fill out the rest of the roster as needed. In order to become cap compliant enough to cut Watson and not restructure him, here are the three seemingly mandatory steps:
Step 1: Restructure everybody. This includes Myles Garrett, Denzel Ward, Jerry Jeudy, Grant Delpit Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, and Maliek Collins. These restructures save $30,043,720 if restructured to the full amount possible.
Step 2: Extend David Njoku, Wyatt Teller, Joel Bitonio, and Jack Conklin. These players, if off the roster in 2026, will account for $83,298,327 in void money alone. If they are extended, the previous signing bonus requirements do not get accelerated, therefore saving cap space even when taking into account their new contracts. In this scenario, we extended David Njoku, Wyatt Teller, and Joel Bitonio each for one-year, $12,000,000 contracts, and added an extra void year to each. We assigned them veteran minimum salaries, while prorating the signing bonus over the remaining void years. Their new cap numbers for 2026 as rostered players is now only $43,284,196. While nearly $80 million in void money will hit the cap in 2027 if they aren't further extended, that is the trade-off for cutting Watson.
Step 3: Cut Deshaun Watson as a post-June 1st designation. Only once the other cap management moves have been executed can the team realistically cut Watson in any capacity. This saves $0 this year because his contract is fully guaranteed. It also accelerates his void money all to 2027, but at least designating him post-June 1st doesn't pull it up to 2026. After all aformentioned moves are completed, this team will have roughly $22.6 million to work with for the remainder of free agency in 2026.
SUMMARY SHEET - Click on this Summary Sheet if you want an overview in Google Sheets that has all moves, contract cap numbers, and the math that got us here (Cap Management tab).
Fixing the Cleveland Browns
The Browns drafted two quarterbacks in 2025, and this offense is not ready to compete. The objective in this mock is to keep the defense rolling while vastly improving the offense. We want to keep enough cap space to have flexibility next year, but still seek to improve the team as much as possible this year. That means retaining our decent remaining free agents, such as Alex Wright and Ronnie Hickman, while focusing on the offense early in the draft.
If this offense appears sustainable and the 2025 rookies are not proving themselves worthy of leading this franchise, then we will be ready for a new quarterback in the supposedly loaded class of 2027.
Below is a summary of our Free Agency:
The red numbers signify void money, which is unfortunately unavoidable in this situation without multi-year extensions. The bulk of the 2026 roster is already in-house. We also have ten draft picks this year, leaving us with limited roster space for external free agency. While we will undoubtedly bring in more low-level vets for training camp, it is unlikely we will retain more than a couple as we turn the roster around and prioritize youth and UDFA contracts given our abysmal cap situation.
With $121,429,098 in dead cap this year, we hope to expand more in free agency in upcoming years as opposed to forcing back-loaded contracts this off-season. Maintaining flexibility in 2027 is pivotal so that we can address unseen areas of weakness and make decisions based on quarterback play. If Sanders or Gabriel look like the answer after next season, then there is plenty of cap manipulation that can be done to "go all in" so to speak.
With that in mind, below is our draft (done on the PFF Mock Draft Simulator). It is not completely up-to-date with the recent trades, but has the correct number of draft picks on each day of the NFL draft. If anything, the simulator picks on day three give a strong disadvantage, but it is a good exercise none-the-less:
I entered these into the template attached to SUMMARY SHEET above, so you can see every move for this mock at a glance. As expressed earlier, we strongly prioritized the offense early in the draft. Jordyn Tyson and the Utah tackle duo should set us up well for the future. Four total offensive linemen were drafted to eventually replace the old vets we extended, as well as the current depth which has not been sufficient when called upon.
We then went for depth on day three at the positions with the highest hit rate. There have been many studies done, including a part of my capstone project for my Master's degree, showing hit rates for various positions on each day of the NFL draft. Long story short, it is typically best on day three to draft interior offense linemen, defensive tackles, linebackers, safeties, running backs, and tight ends. Not that other positions shouldn't be drafted, but the hit rate for these is significantly higher than the rest on day three.
With this in mind, we took a nickel corner in the fourth, two linebackers in the fifth, and a nose tackle in the seventh. Scott, Rodriguez, and Perkins may have contributing roles immediately and can be used effectively on special teams. Hunter was brought in because there is no true two-gapping nose tackle on this roster, so he may fill an immediate role as well.
We also retained three undrafted free agents that fit roles we could use. Tanner Arkin is a big-bodied blocking tight end, Rohan Jones is both a full-back and move tight end, and Jalen Catalon can add to our free safety depth. We could also look into signing an external free agent such as Kam Curl at safety, but we are happy with our starters and wanted to prioritize youth and cap flexibility.
Below is a screenshot of the final 53-man roster and cap situation:
Surprisingly, the LEAST important aspect of this mock is external free agency. The only two vets from outside of the organization were a corner for depth who can play outside when called upon and a pocket-collapsing, big-bodied defensive end. There are many options for players who fit these roles at their approximate price range, and these selections were rather arbitrary.
This team could potentially use another pass rusher across from Garrett, but hopefully some combination of our rookies can provide the juice that low-level free agents at our price range could not. Besides that, there really aren't many true weaknesses on this team depending on how our draft picks pan out. If our re-signed offensive line vets fall off a cliff and our draft picks don't pan out, then it would be concerning. Because of this, we kept ten offensive linemen on the active roster while most teams typically keep about eight. (Note: Zinter or a one of the Oregon rookies could go to the practice squad if we need more depth elsewhere or special teams players, but I'm not too concerned about the minutiae for this particular mock.)
The important note is that Watson is off the team, the offense should be drastically improved through the draft, and this defense in theory can continue to perform at a high level given the roster continuity. While the off-season acquisitions were not exciting, I think fans can finally become hopeful with the $230 million dollar man officially off the roster.
The off-season could be a lot more active if the team restructures Watson instead, but I think that cutting him would feel like turning over a new leaf. A weight would be lifted from every fan's shoulders, and a spark of hope could finally return to the Cleveland franchise.
Comments
Post a Comment