Atlanta Falcons – Primed for Massive 2023 Leap

 

Last May, I selected the Eagles as my surprise team to not only win the division, but make a playoff run as well. It seems obvious now, but their odds to win the division were +240 with over/under of 8.5 wins back when I posted this in May. By September 1^st, the odds had risen to around +105 for them to win the NFC East with a win total of 9.5. If you want the best payout, you have to get in early.

The pick for this year to crush their betting odds is the Atlanta Falcons. Currently, their win totals are resting around 8.0 with positive odds above 8.5. Their division odds are +260 on FanDuel, and occasionally even higher elsewhere. With the second easiest projected schedule in the league this upcoming year, unfortunately behind only the Saints, these betting odds are destined to become less favorable over the next few months.

Offense

The primary reason Atlanta is going to take a step forward this year is from their personnel improvements in combination with young starters having more experience and continuity everywhere they did not improve. They lost no real key pieces, while upgrading at multiple positions. Before jumping into positional breakdowns, let’s first assess what Arthur Smith wants to do on offense.

Back in Tennessee as the offensive coordinator in 2019 and 2020, Smith elevated the offense through heavy play action and a high rushing rate. Derrick Henry had his best seasons in the two years with Arthur Smith as his OC, averaging over 5.0 YPC in both seasons (which he has not done in any other year). In 2019 and 2020, the Titans had the 4^th and 3^rd highest rush percentages in the league, respectively.

Coming over to Atlanta in 2021, Arthur Smith brought his scheme that has played out a bit differently over the last two years. In 2021, he ran heavy play action with Matt Ryan (6^th most PA attempts in the NFL) with the second most two TE sets of any team (39%). With Mike Davis, Cordarrelle Patterson, and an immobile quarterback, they were forced to pass significantly more than Smith would have liked.

In 2022 with the additions of Tyler Allgeier and a mobile quarterback, they had the highest rush rate of any team in the NFL while abandoning the heavy play action concept. Arthur Smith has made it known that he wants to run, but how much exactly? Not only did they have the highest rush rate overall, but their first down run percentage was far and away the top of the charts.

They were decent too with the 13^th most yards gained on first and ten (5.79). Heading into 2023, it is obvious that they want to bolster those numbers having drafted Bijan Robinson at 8^th overall and a run-blocking offensive lineman with their early second pick. They also traded for Jonnu Smith, who was the starting tight end and heavily utilized in Tennessee when Arthur Smith was OC. With improved run game personnel and proven success when equipped with an elite running back, this team has now been built around what Arthur Smith does best.

Now, let’s look more specifically at the personnel. Starting up front, the offensive line is designed to run block. Atlanta brought back Pro Bowl guard Chris Lindstrom as the highest paid guard in the NFL making $102.5 million over the next five years. Kaleb McGary and Jake Matthews remain a power duo on the outside as PFF’s 4^th and 16^th ranked offensive tackles, respectively, and even Dalman at center is a significantly better run blocker than he is a pass blocker. The weakest link at left guard last season, Elijah Wilkinson, will likely be filled by rookie Matthew Bergeron. While playing primarily left tackle in college, Bergeron projects best as a guard who should excel in the run game. The skill set of the early second round pick is summarized best by Lance Zierlein himself:

Adding Bergeron to this starting unit should help push them into the elite tier.

 

Even their depth has proven solid with Matt Hennessy earning an 82.6 PFF run blocking grade on 81 run blocking snaps in 2022. If this offensive line remains healthy, then they could easily be one of the best run blocking units in the league.

Moving to tight end, Atlanta most recently traded for Jonnu Smith. Parker Hesse led the Falcons in tight end snaps in 2022 lining up inline on nearly 90% of his snaps, so bringing back Arthur Smith’s old weapon from Tennessee to play alongside Kyle Pitts makes a lot of sense. The Falcons ran the 5^th most 2+ TE sets on first down last year (45%) despite their personnel, and the 3^rd most on first down the year prior. With Kyle Pitts entering his third year along with the veteran addition, this tight end room should be versatile and dangerous in 2023.

With this quantity of rushing, wide receiver depth becomes less important. Back in the 2019 and 2020 seasons in Tennessee, it was AJ Brown, Corey Davis, Jonnu Smith, and then everyone else. This year in Atlanta, it is Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Jonnu Smith, and then everyone else. With 8^th overall pick Drake London entering his second year, he is expected to be the alpha wide receiver in this offense. If Pitts and London can both step up this season, then teams should not be able to stack the box as easily against the run.

When it comes to the running backs, this room has only improved. Patterson, who had the fourth most targets on the team last year and third most the year before, is still on the roster. Now sophomore Tyler Allgeier proved that he is an asset with the sixth most yards created over expected per attempt in his rookie season.

While Allgeier should still get a fair number of carries, the most exciting off-season acquisition was “generational running back” Bijan Robinson. If the Falcons already had success running the ball, then adding Bijan behind an improved offensive line can only catapult them upwards. Bijan getting injured would be unfortunate, but they still have great depth behind him.

Now everyone knows that Arthur Smith loves to run and drafted Bijan Robinson to do so even more, but the biggest question mark remains at quarterback. Desmond Ridder is set to start with Taylor Heinicke backing him up. What Arthur Smith truly needs from his starting quarterback is a game manager who does not turn the ball over, can execute simple reads, and potentially execute heavy play action concepts if he elects to bring back that philosophy this upcoming season.

Ridder had a decent finish in the four games he started to close out the 2022 regular season. He did not throw any interceptions, and seemingly improved in each of the four games. If you remove his first start against the Saints, he finished the season 2-1, and completed 60 of his 89 attempts (67.4%) for 611 yards and two touchdowns. While nothing spectacular, Ridder proved that he could protect the football and do what is asked of him from the pocket. Regardless of your opinion of Ridder or Heinicke, they both have shown enough competence to run this team successfully with how it has been built. A step forward for Ridder is just icing on the cake.

Defense

Now this defense is by no means elite, but it has either maintained continuity or improved across the board. Starting on the interior defensive front, Timmy Horne, Ta’Quon Graham, and Abdullah Anderson rotated for the majority of snaps alongside Grady Jarrett. This year, Atlanta brings in both Calais Campbell and David Onyemata. They are both projected starters, and are immediate improvements over the hodgepodge of rotational linemen they had in 2022. On the edge, Lorenzo Carter, 2^nd round rookie Arnold Ebiketie, and Adetokunbo Ogundeji took the majority of snaps. That group was rather abysmal last year with Ogundeji accumulating only six total pressures on 218 pass rush snaps (502 total snaps). With the signing of Bud Dupree, the re-signing of Lorenzo Carter, and Ebiketie entering his second season, this mediocre group should at least be a slight improvement from 2022. The Falcons also drafted Zach Harrison in the third round this year, but he projects to be more of a developmental prospect than an immediate impact starter.

At linebacker, the reps last season were dominated by Mykal Walker, Rashaan Evans, and 2^nd round rookie Troy Anderson. Again, this group is not a stone wall, but Atlanta did bring in PFF’s 7^th best ranked linebacker last year in Kaden Elliss. While set to start at inside linebacker, he also adds pass rush value having accumulated eight sacks on only 103 pass rush snaps in 2022. He can add value blitzing to a group that desperately needs help pressuring the quarterback, and also slot in at inside linebacker; truly a perfect signing for Atlanta. With the athletic freak (with an athleticism score ranked 5^th out of 501 linebackers historically via Player Profiler) and former quarterback/running back Troy Anderson spending more time at the position and entering his second year alongside a proven commodity in Kaden Elliss, this linebacking core should be quite improved from 2022.

The secondary is where Atlanta made the biggest splashes this off-season. They signed Jessie Bates III as the fourth highest paid safety in the NFL behind only Derwin James, Minkah Fitzpatrick, and Jamal Adams. Last year, Jaylinn Hawkins and Richie Grant played the vast majority of safety snaps. This year, Grant will enter his third season playing alongside a proven stud, with Hawkins remaining on the roster.

At cornerback, Darren Hall took a good portion of snaps with Casey Hayward and Cornell Armstrong  rotating outside reps with roughly 350 each across from AJ Terrell. That rotation is about to change with the acquisition of former 3^rd overall pick Jeff Okudah. Okudah had a devastating injury that may prevent him from ever physically returning to form, but the innate talent is still there. If he can step up after a bit more time removed from the injury in a contract year and play as the number two corner opposite AJ Terrell, then this secondary will already be vastly improved from last year.

This defense is by no means elite, but can be quite good if a few key players step up. Even without the second year players taking a step forward, the personnel should be much improved from last year with no key pieces leaving. The front seven has the potential of being decent, and the secondary has the potential of becoming elite. If the Falcons pulled out 7 wins last year with a significantly more difficult strength of schedule, then this team should easily be able to surpass the Vegas win projection of 8.5 with an improved roster across the board.

New Orleans Saints

Let’s address the elephant in the room. The reason the Falcons are around +260 to win the division is because the Saints are around +125. Not only did they acquire a legitimate quarterback this year in Derek Carr, but they actually have an easier projected strength of schedule than the Falcons.

Now, the strength of schedule for the Falcons based on last year’s win totals gives them the easiest 2023 strength of schedule at 0.417 to the Saints 0.427, but the difference really is negligible. The main reason that the Falcons could easily win the division this year is because the Saints stayed roughly the same or got worse at almost every other position. If Michael Thomas can stay healthy, which he really hasn’t since 2019, then the receiving core will certainly be improved from last season.

Aside from that, they lost three starters across the defensive line, including Marcus Davenport, a starting linebacker (Elliss to the Falcons), and made no changes to their secondary. They brought in Khalen Saunders and Nathan Shepherd to fill the void along the defensive interior, but neither are stars in their own rights. They also may not have Alvin Kamara much this season. If he gets suspended, the betting odds are going to shift pretty rapidly.

In their draft, they brought in more projects along the defensive line who will likely not make much of an immediate impact. They also drafted a very good workhorse back in Kendre Miller, but he will certainly not have the same offensive impact as Kamara. Their draft overall was fine, but they did not bring in much talent to improve their roster this year. That proclamation could prove to be incorrect, but Bresee and Foskey are not day one starters according to much of the draft community.

Do the Saints have a good defense? Absolutely. It should be better than Atlanta’s. Could their offense be great with Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, newly acquired Derek Carr, and five top 50 picks, including four first rounders, across the offensive line? Certainly. They are the division favorites for a reason. It is also very possible that Kamara and Thomas do not play throughout the entire season, left tackle Trevor Penning and left guard Andrus Peat do not improve their 2022 PFF pass blocking grades of 38.7 and 40.3 respectively, thus being a liability on passing downs, and their overall defense gets slightly worse from where it was last season.

The comparison of Philadelphia to Dallas last year is very similar to that of Atlanta and New Orleans this year. On May 17, 2022, the Cowboys were at +105 to win the division with a Vegas win total of 10.5. They had a great team, but got worse or stayed the same at every position over the off-season. They traded Amari Cooper, released La’el Collins, and did not sign any big ticket free agents. Dallas still ended with 12 wins, but were unable to take the division. The Eagles, on the other hand, remained static or improved at every single position.

The Saints this year are +125 to win the division with a Vegas win total of 9.5. They lost some starters, and failed to replace them with any big ticket free agents. Atlanta, on the other hand, either improved or remained static across the board. They also have roughly the same betting odds that the Eagles did at exactly this time last year. While it is unlikely that they will make the same leap as the Eagles, they are in a position to improve drastically from where they were last year.

The biggest differences are that the Saints acquired Derek Carr, and they are coming off of 7 wins this last year as opposed to Dallas’s 11 in 2021. The Eagles also turned Jalen Hurts into a superstar, while Desmond Ridder is still entirely unproven for the Falcons. Now, Ridder does not run very often, but is more than capable of doing so having posted a faster official 40-yard-dash than Jalen Hurts (4.52). If utilized as such, the sky really is the limit for Atlanta’s already stout rushing attack.

Upshot

The Atlanta Falcons have either maintained continuity or improved at every position across the board. They drafted multiple players who should be impact starters immediately, acquired multiple significant upgrades via free agency and trades, and have several key starters entering year two or year three. With the projected second easiest strength of schedule in the NFL, Atlanta should be able to pull ahead of most of their competition. They are designed to maintain their leads with one of the most prominent rushing attacks in the NFL, and should be able to out-perform their projected win total of 8-8.5 with even mediocre quarterback play. If Ridder can take a step forward this season, then Atlanta could even be a dark horse to make a playoff run this upcoming season.