Washington Commanders 2024 Off-Season Simulation

Every year, I take part in a full off-season simulation as the General Manager for the Washington Commanders. This multi-month-long endeavor involves roughly 170 individuals, including allocated commissioners, agents, aspiring NFL scouts, and, of course, helpful assistants in each War Room.

Our objective as the front office for the Washington Commanders this year was simple:

      1.      Draft a quarterback

      2.      Perform a complete roster overhaul

      3.      . . .

      4.      Profit.

The goal was to build the offense so that our new quarterback could have the best possible situation when adapting to his new environment. We wanted to add offensive linemen and receivers in both the draft and free agency, and then worry about the defense next year when we are more realistically competing.

But things don’t always go according to plan.

Sometimes trades present themselves that are too valuable to overlook. Sometimes your offensive targets don’t fall to you in the draft. Sometimes going best player available during a complete roster overhaul is far more valuable to the long-term outlook of your team than reaching several tiers for players at positions of greater need. With that said, let’s get into it!

Starting Point

The designated cap for this simulation was $242.5 million dollars, which is lower than what it actually ended up being. We had $66,728,935 in available cap space, which was among the highest in the NFL.

Below is a table of everyone we currently have on contract:

Clearly, there are a lot of holes. On top of bringing in a new quarterback, we need drastic help in the trenches. Everyone aside from Sam Cosmi could be replaced on the offensive line, and we need help at edge along the defensive line to help our interior studs.

The other areas of weakness on offense include the tight end and running back positions, and we could still afford to add depth at wide receiver. On defense, we simply need more linebackers and safeties on the roster, and could use some cornerback help as well. We still are hoping that our young guys like Emmanuel Forbes develop, but we need at least one other starting cornerback and some additional depth.

So again, we pretty much need a complete roster overhaul with the exception of a few select players.

Internal Free Agency

The first step is to determine who to cut, who to trade, and who to extend before free agency opens. There were several cut candidates, but, ultimately, we only ended up cutting Logan Thomas. By cutting Thomas, we only accumulate $1,750,000 in dead cap while saving $6,540,000.

Before we re-signed any former player, we executed two trades. The first trade was:

• Washington Receives: Pick 1
• Chicago Receives: Pick 2 + Pick 40

We were elated that the Chicago General Manager accepted this offer. Our war room was torn between Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, and trading back, but we all agreed that Caleb Williams was the optimal pick. The second trade that we executed was highly unexpected:

• Washington Receives: Cam Robinson + Pick 48 + 2025 2^nd Round Pick
• Jacksonville Receives: Sam Cosmi

We wanted Cosmi to be a foundational piece of our offense, but the offer was too good to pass up. Additionally, Cosmi is on the last year of his rookie contract, and will likely demand a top-of-the-market contract. Instead of extending him, we ship the right guard out for a haul.

We ended up extending newly-acquired Cam Robinson instead in hopes that he can be our left tackle for the foreseeable future. He may not be elite, but he is surely an upgrade and a very solid pass blocker.

Internal free agency did not go quite as planned either. The only player we were able to sign is Kendall Fuller. Simulation rules limited internal free agency to three players, but the other two offers we had for Kamren Curl and Jeremy Reaves were not enough to retain them. There was talk of tagging Curl, but we wanted to allocate our resources elsewhere.

External Free Agency

The market in this simulation went a bit off the rails with people backloading contracts. Some examples of our targets going elsewhere for ridiculous money include:

Simulation Signings	Name	Position	Contract	AAV
Denver Broncos	Jonah Williams	RT	5yr - $110,000,000	$22,000,000
Houston Texans	Xavier McKinney	FS	3yr - $60,000,000	$20,000,000
Jacksonville Jaguars	Connor Williams	C	5yr - $85,000,000	$17,000,000

There were many others, but these were the most egregious examples.

By the end of free agency, we managed to retain Jeremy Reaves, Cornelius Lucas, and Khaleke Hudson, along with previously mentioned Kendall Fuller. Kam Curl elected to take him talents elsewhere:

Name	Position	Contract	AAV
Kendall Fuller	Cornerback	3yr - $45,000,000	$15,000,000
Jeremy Reaves	Safety	2yr - $6,000,000	$3,000,000
Cornelius Lucas	Swing Tackle	2yr - $6,000,000	$3,000,000
Khaleke Hudson	Linebacker	VSB	$1,232,500

External free agency also did not go entirely as planned. We wanted to prioritize the offensive line and make life as easy as possible for Caleb Williams. On defense, we did not want to invest significant resources into the defensive line due to the market, and rather build that position for the future through the draft.

We submitted our offers in four waves. Many of our initial offers were lower amounts, but were negotiated up by the agents due to competing offers. Here is our first wave of offers:

Honestly, we were relieved that we did not win the Jonah Williams sweepstakes. We felt as if we had the cap and could afford to lock in a tackle duo, but it was just far too expensive for what he brings to the table. We got heavily out-bid on Xavier McKinney, Frankie Luvu, and Connor Williams, which was disappointing, but we did manage to lock up Austin Ekeler, Denzel Perryman, and Greg Van Roten. Ekeler’s deal is a bit on the higher end, but he is experienced and should be an excellent outlet for Caleb Williams and a huge upgrade in the two-minute-drill. We should also be able to get out of his deal rather easily in 2026 if need be.

Van Roten and Perryman are excellent values for what they bring to the table. Ideally, Van Roten is a back-up guard, but he is a talented enough pass blocker to slide right in when need be.

On our second wave, we were much more successful with bringing in helpful pieces:

Darren Waller and Mike Gesicki will be very helpful targets over the middle, and give us some much needed red zone threats. Marcus Davenport is instantly the best defensive end on the roster, and Isaiah Simmons is an athletic chess piece for Joe Whitt’s defense. Most importantly, Trent Brown can play right tackle. While his health cannot be relied upon, he will be a massive improvement when he does see the football field.

In wave three, we acquired some much-needed depth:

Mekhi Becton and Isaiah Wynn on $2.1 million dollar deals is huge for our depth at offensive line, and Taylor Rapp may have just become the best safety on our roster at only $3.1 million.

The final wave involves a massive overpay, but with roughly $30 million in cap space still available, we wanted to see what these players could do in a new environment:

The positions we did not fill as thoroughly as we wanted was interior offensive line and wide receiver. Unfortunately, the market for these positions was rather egregious. At least the draft was still ahead of us.

Throughout this process, two more trades were completed. The first one included cut-candidate Charles Leno Jr., who retired just hours after this trade became official in the simulation:

• Washington Receives: Pick 114 + Pick 187
• New York Jets Receive: Charles Leno Jr.

The next trade technically occurred during the first round of the NFL draft. Minnesota drafted Troy Fautanu and Jackson Powers-Johnson, so we were able to acquire a starting center from them for a very reasonable price:

• Washington Receives: Garrett Bradbury
• Minnesota Receives: Pick 181

With Garrett Bradbury at center, Trent Brown and Cam Robinson at offensive tackle, and Andrew Wylie moving back inside to guard where he has historically played the best throughout his career, our offensive line is starting to take shape.

We also still have Ricky Stromberg and Braeden Daniels on top of newly acquired Isaiah Wynn and Greg Van Roten, so we are confident that some combination of these players will show up in training camp. Our plan is to also draft an interior offensive lineman relatively early on as well, but we are much more comfortable with the floor of our offensive line heading into the draft than we were at the onset of free agency.

NFL Draft

The draft was absolutely wild. During the draft, we made several trades that changed the entire shape of our roster.

To start, we selected Caleb Williams at number one overall. No surprise there. For our second pick, we were hoping that Jordan Morgan or Graham Barton fell to us at 36 to solidify the offensive line, but they were drafted at picks 27 and 29, respectively. We then realized something absurd – Laiatu Latu was still on the board.

We traded with Baltimore to go up and get the 9^th ranked player on our big board. We gave picks 36 and 48 for picks 30 and 62, which seemed like a solid value where we did not lose any number of picks in this draft. A couple of other potential targets we had, including Adonai Mitchell and Troy Franklin, were selected before pick 36, so we felt great about our trade up to get Latu. Here is a link to my scouting report on Laitu Latu: Click Here.

We then traded pick 62 to Arizona for picks 66 and 161, and drafted Junior Colson with pick 66. While we have not yet improved the offense, well, aside from adding Caleb Williams, we have now drafted a couple of very high floor defensive pieces who should become cornerstones for at least the next four years.

At pick 67, the craziest trade was presented to us that I have ever seen in my four years of participating in this simulation. Comparable to the Brock Osweiler trade in 2017, Tennessee offered us a haul to take Harold Landry’s contract. Landry has $17.25 million in guaranteed salary this year on top of his remaining $19.65 million prorated signing bonus. We accepted the salary, and now have him on contract with $17.5 million in cap and no guarantees for both 2025 and 2026. The final trade details are as follows:

• Washington Receives: Harold Landry + Pick 79 + Pick 124 + Pick 145 + 2025 2^nd +2025 3^rd
• Tennessee Receives: Pick 67 + Pick 101 + Pick 220

We were apparently the only team with the remaining 2024 cap space to take on this cap responsibility, leaving us with $3,511,423 roll-over cap for next year.

Just like that, we went from having virtually no edge rushers to having a very solid unit. If Landry performs well, then $17.5 million in this edge market is really not that bad. It is all salary, so restructuring next year if we elect to retain him is in the cards as well. With Laiatu Latu, Harold Landry, and Marcus Davenport filling out this defense that already has Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen in the middle, this may actually become a top unit once again on a team with a coaching staff that clearly prioritizes have a strong, physical, and aggressive defense.

Continuing with the draft, we selected another USC player in Calen Bullock with pick 79. As debatably the best single-high coverage free safety in this class, Bullock’s skill set should allow Jamal Adams to roam freely and be used closer to the line of scrimmage in more creative ways. Bullock is not the first player that comes to mind for a "run and hit" Joe Whitt defense, but his talent and skill set may be what we need to unlock the more versatile players on this roster in Isaiah Simmons and Jamal Adams.

Our next four picks were spent on the offense:

Pick 103 – Johnny Wilson, WR FSU
Pick 114 – MarShawn Lloyd, RB USC
Pick 124 – Isaiah Adams, G Illinois
Pick 134 – Malik Washington, WR UVA

Johnny Wilson at 6’6, 231lbs creates a mismatch along the boundary. He is our only wide receiver over 6’ tall who is likely to make the 53-man roster, aside from maybe Mitchell Tinsley at 6’1, and can be used in unique and creative ways on both the inside and outside. Here is my scouting report on Johnny Wilson: Click Here.

Drafting a third player from USC after hiring Kliff Kingsbury is purely coincidental, but we absolutely love MarShawn Lloyd. He has a completely different skill set than what we currently have on roster. Brian Robinson Jr. and Chris Rodriguez Jr. are both plodders who run hard and can grind out necessary yardage. Austin Ekeler is an experienced receiving threat who should be excellent in the two-minute-drill and on third downs. Lloyd is lightning in a bottle who can bounce to the outside and make huge plays in space. He adds some fire to the backfield, and should be a great situational weapon despite limited passing game experience.

We finally got an interior offensive lineman with Isaiah Adams. He just came a lot later than expected in the draft than we originally planned in the form of a nasty run blocker. He is an outstanding zone blocker and is much more consistent as a pass blocker as well when filling in at left guard. It is very possible that we start him at left guard on day one despite his lesser draft capital. Adams becoming a legitimate starting caliber interior offensive lineman could be pivotal for the future outlook of this offense.

Malik Washington also adds a spark to this offense as a YAC guy that we were really lacking up to this point. He had the most missed tackles forced of any wide receiver in the county this last season with 35 on 111 receptions for 1384 yards. He has very sure hands, ridiculous explosiveness, as proven at the combine with his 42.5” vertical, and is built very solidly at 191lbs while standing only 5’8.5” tall.

The final picks of this draft were mostly high-upside traits guys at positions where we are able to hold them on the roster, and where they could make an impact if they overperform compared to expectations.

Pick 145 – Cedric Johnson, Edge Ole Miss
Pick 161 – Jarrian Jones, CB FSU
Pick 187 – Curtis Jacobs, LB Penn State

We liked the tape of all of these players before the combine, and the combine only helped their cases. Cedric Johnson can become a strongside rotational player and hopefully mitigate our need to re-sign Davenport next season. Jarrian Jones is likely a slot corner only at the next level, so he and Quan Martin, who can also play safety if need be, will compete for the nickel role. Curtis Jacobs is a project who does not currently see the game as efficiently as he should for an NFL linebacker. If he can sit and learn for a year or two, then he has high potential as a weakside off-ball linebacker.

Undrafted Free Agents

After the draft, we still had nine roster spots to fill. We wanted to target players who could ultimately find their way onto the 53-man squad based on our current depth chart. The positions where a UDFA could overtake someone already on the team are wide receiver, tight end, and defensive tackle. We also submitted some final offers to unclaimed veteran free agents who we thought could add value to our roster.

We are given a $100,000 budget for UDFA guarantees for this simulation so that the pseudo general managers do not go overboard. We submitted our final free agent and UDFA offers simultaneously:

Free Agent Offers:

UDFA Offers

The free agent offers were all low enough to not have any impact on the cap. Joey Slye was the most important offer as our only kicker on the roster. Perhaps a Veteran Salary Benefit contract is not fair to him, but getting a contract is better than waiting around for next off-season or hoping another kicker gets injured.

DeVante Parker is another potentially impactful starter. He may even start across from Terry McLaurin in 11-personnel packages so that Johnny Wilson and Malik Washington do not need to see the field as much in their rookie seasons. Parker gives Caleb Williams a taller, more experienced and physical player who adds an element to this offense that was not there previously.

Andre Dillard and Saahdiq Charles will have the opportunity to compete for roster spots as well. If Dillard can show tackle/guard versatility, then he has a much better chance of making the final cuts. Finally, Clyde Edwards-Helaire may be able to compete with Chris Rodriguez Jr. for the fourth running back slot. With no fullback, we may end up rostering four, although only having three on game day would be highly preferred.

With no negotiations during this process, we submitted ten UDFA offers. Tight end and wide receiver were prioritized. There are only two tight ends remaining who we think have a shot at making this roster, so we sent offers to both of them.

We then targeted traditional outside receivers to compete with DaVante Parker and former UDFA Mitchell Tinsley. We like Tinsley, but looking for additional talent at outside receiver is incredibly important.

We then sent offers to two nose tackles who together are pushing 700lbs. We are missing a true unmovable two-gap defensive tackle, so seeing what these players can do rotationally in the run game could potentially improve our defensive line.

Finally, we offered contracts to three one-gap defensive tackles. Interior rotational pass rush is highly important, and we have added no talent to the defensive interior throughout this entire off-season. Briggs, Crumedy, and Logue all have a shot of proving their value on the interior in training camp.

After everyone accepted, we left with 92 total players. We ended up cutting Julian Good-Jones and Brandon Dillon, leaving us with our final 90-man roster.

Final Summary

Below is the final roster:

We think that our roster is significantly better than it has been for the last two years, but it is still not ready to be a Super Bowl competitor. This is expected with the previous state of our roster, and the fact that rookie quarterbacks just don’t win Super Bowls regardless.

We have the resources and draft capital next season to make some more big splashes, give Caleb Williams more weapons, and hopefully start competing in 2025. Below is our current cap situation:

While $18.1 million in 2025 may seem low, there is a lot of manipulation that we can do. Nick Gates likely will not be on the roster, or even make the 53-man depth chart this year, saving roughly $7.5 million in 2025. Harold Landry has exclusively salary and can be cut for $17.5 million, or restructured for a very large amount of instant savings. Jonathan Allen will likely be traded, saving $17 million. Terry McLaurin could be extended, and we can replace his $15.25 million dollar salary with new figures to help the current state of our cap.

These options, along with many other possible restructures from contracts signed this off-season and the starting cap likely being higher than $260 million, left us in a great spot heading into 2025. Below is our 2025 draft capital:

With six top 100 picks in 2025, we can continue to completely overhaul this roster and bring in young talent. We will likely be looking at another top 10 pick with just about every other team in the simulation going all in this year and sacrificing future cap space with a plethora of back-loaded deals in order to compete now.

With this pick, we can look into getting another alpha wide receiver. We could also look into drafting a right tackle who can start at guard to grow accustomed to NFL speed and strength, then hopefully develop into our franchise right tackle beginning in his sophomore year when Trent Brown’s contract expires. He even may fill in for Trent Brown during his rookie season when Brown is inevitably injured if we elect to go this route. If the pick is high enough, we could even trade back for more assets if there is a QB-needy team looking to move up.

Closing Thoughts

We think that this went well overall, but it was not ideal. Cam Robinson at left tackle is a big upgrade from what we had, but we may have locked ourselves into mediocrity for the next couple of years on the left side. We also were not able to bring in any big time wide receiver free agents. We did provide red zone threats and help over the middle of the field, which we did not have before aside from Logan Thomas. Darren Waller, Mike Gesicki, and Johnny Wilson all some add much needed height to this roster, and Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson can still get open and serve as downfield threats.

We went into this off-season wanting to really focus on building a stellar offensive line for our new quarterback, but the offensive tackle options in free agency just were not there. We genuinely signed two of the best offensive tackles available, and our top-graded offensive linemen were all gone before pick 30 of the NFL draft.

On defense, we revamped our defensive line and then some. While I personally did not want to focus on the defense for this “rebuild,” edge rushers will always be highly important. Our additions on the defensive line along with our significant linebacker upgrades should make for a scary front seven.

While our cornerback room is surely not in the top half of the league, we signed a bunch of chess pieces for Joe Whitt to utilize in his own creative ways. If Forbes can develop into the first-round caliber cornerback that he was drafted to be, then the outlook of this secondary will change entirely.

With Caleb Williams at the helm, a much improved roster on both sides of the ball, and superior cap management to many of our peers in this exercise, we would be very excited for the long-term outlook of this roster.