Washington Commanders 2025 Off-Season Simulation
Every year, I take part in a full off-season simulation as
the General Manager for the Washington Commanders. This multi-month-long
endeavor involves roughly 200 individuals, including allocated commissioners,
agents, aspiring NFL scouts, and assistants in each War Room.
This year was refreshing because it is the first year since
I started doing this back in 2021 where we do not need a new quarterback.
Despite making it to the NFC Championship, our roster remains relatively weak.
With our coaching staff in place, the number one priority is to build around
Jayden Daniels.
Our top five priorities were:
1. Extend Terry McLaurin
2. Improve the Offensive Line
3. Surround Daniels with Weapons
4. Add Legit Pass Rushers to the Defensive Line
5. Revamp the Secondary
Below is our starting point:
TRADES
We started the off-season by trading away Jonathan Allen. He was on the
chopping block, as trading or cutting him saves us $17mil and we have an adequate
replacement for him in Jer’Zhan Newton. The trade was:
Jacksonville Receives – Jonathan Allen
Washington Receives – Picks 106 + 184
Later on in the process, another opportunity presented itself:
LA Chargers Receive – Pick 106
Washington Receives – Quentin Johnston + Pick 201
Now Quentin Johnston may not solve all of our issues, but he
is only on the books for $2mil this year and $2.7mil in 2026. Getting a solid
wide receiver who entered the league two years ago as a first round project for
a day three pick swap is worth it regardless of how you feel about Johnston. If
he makes the roster in any capacity, even as a WR4, then it will have been
worth it for what we spent on him.
INTERNAL FREE AGENCY
The very first thing we did was sign Terry McLaurin to an
extension. We offered over $30mil per year for three years taking effect after
this season ends in 2026. Locking him up long-term was our biggest priority
entering the off-season.
For internal free agency, we were permitted to only re-sign
three players (simulation rules - otherwise free agency becomes bleak). We
prioritized Dante Fowler Jr., Bobby Wagner, and Jeremy Chinn. The agent did not
approve of my offer for Chinn, so we swapped to Cornelius Lucas. I actually
believe that we offered more than he will realistically see in March, but the
agent thought he deserved top eight money. All other players tested the market
aside from Chris Rodriguez who we considered part of our starting point as an
ERFA.
EXTERNAL FREE AGENCY
Disclaimer: Many people in the simulation massively
overpay and backload their contracts since they only care about this current
year. I try to stay as realistic as possible, but am occasionally forced into a
~20% sim tax and overpay my primary targets.
The offensive line overperformed this year. The starters are
not awful, but improvements must be made. I firmly believe that Brandon Coleman is best as a guard. He lacks groin
flexibility so his kickslide is shallow. On true pass sets, he either has to
sell out towards the edge or mirror from the line, and when he does sell out to
cover the edge, he often gets crossed by better edge rushers. He could still
improve at tackle, but we will not hesitate to sign a left tackle and kick
Coleman inside, allowing Allegretti to be a flex backup center and guard. Wylie
is also a decent guard, as he proved earlier in his career, and is an
adequate right tackle. In a perfect world, we get two new starting offensive
tackles.
Unfortunately, zero high-level tackles hit external free
agency. The only right tackles available were not upgrades over Wylie, and we
already re-signed Cornelius Lucas as our swing tackle. The name that was there
is Tyron Smith, so we took him on in a reasonable deal to start at left tackle.
We may not have Sam Cosmi to start 2025, so this move allows
Coleman to play left guard and Allegretti can move over to right guard. We also
could bump Wylie inside and start Cornelius Lucas at right tackle. Whatever the
permutation may be, we trust the coaching staff to make the right decision, and
still may add guys in the draft.
As for offensive weapons, Tee Higgins was unavailable,
leaving mostly ring-chasing vets. Of those, we prioritized Amari Cooper. He may
not be the receiver he once was, but he is only two seasons removed from over
1300 yards with five different quarterbacks throwing to him that year:
Cooper is at least an experienced route runner who can be a
third down merchant if nothing else. He also has experience moving both inside
and outside, which would allow Terry McLaurin to receive more favorable looks.
At tight end, we re-signed Zach Ertz and are still hoping
Ben Sinnott progresses, so we prioritized blocking in external free agency. We
signed Mo Alie-Cox to be the Y-TE and offensive line extension. We also ended
up bringing in Hunter Long on a league minimum deal for potential depth. We are
still missing a homerun threat in the backfield, but no moves were made at
running back since value can typically be found in the draft.
In the secondary, we prioritized bringing in another
cornerback so that we can move Sainristil back inside to nickel, as well as a
star free safety to take over for Jartavious Martin. Martin will be good as a
versatile backup, but is not currently the playmaker needed to thrive in a Joe
Whitt led defense. Unfortunately, we got beat out for Jeremy Chinn, but we
signed Jevon Holland to a massive four year contract.
We ended up signing Stephon Gilmore to play across from
Lattimore after getting beat out on a few other offers. We got Dane Jackson and
James Bradberry on Veteran Salary Benefit deals as well. We also plan on
drafting a cornerback, and, worst case scenario, Sainristil can still play
outside corner when called upon. After being beaten out for Jeremy Chinn late
into free agency, we unfortunately have no starting caliber strong safety on
this roster unless one of our day three draft picks or UDFAs from last year
(such as Tyler Owens or Dominique Hampton) steps up. We will likely address
this relatively early on in the draft.
At linebacker, we already have Frankie Luvu, Bobby Wagner,
and Jordan Magee, so we prioritized excellent special teams players by bringing
in Luke Gifford and Caleb Johnson on VSB deals.
Along the defensive line, we continued our trend of bringing
in former Cowboys by signing Demarcus Lawrence. We now have some solid edge
setters and effort players in Fowler, Armstrong, Lawrence, and Ferrell, but
still need a juiced up pass rusher. We hope that Javontae Jean-Baptiste earns
himself this role, but will likely address this area in the draft.
On the interior, we wanted to bring in better pass rushers
as well, especially after trading away Jon Allen. We got Javon Kinlaw for a
reasonable price tag. He certainly has his deficiencies as a full time player,
but is still a talented pure pass rusher who will be better suited playing
exclusively in NASCAR packages.
Here is everyone we signed in external free agency:
Below are my rejected offers that were above $3mil per year
and where they signed. I offered many deals that were league minimum and
slightly above that were beat out, but did not include those below. As you see,
some of the contracts in this simulation can get a bit out of hand:
NFL DRAFT
We entered the draft with nine picks and made no draft day
trades. I typically make many moves on draft day. Just last year, we traded 36
and 48 for 30 and 62 to pick Laiatu Latu at 30, then traded 62 for 67 and 161
(Junior Colson and Jarrian Jones), and then made a ridiculous trade to a
horrible manager who really wanted to move up:
These picks resulted in Calen Bullock at 79, Isaiah Adams at
124, and Cedric Johnson at 145. While this trade is utterly unrealistic, at
least I found it and pulled the trigger. Though the resulting picks from the
trades are looking good overall, the 2025 draft class is not nearly as strong
as that of 2024. People seem to have less conviction, and fewer people wanted
to move up for their guys, including me.
Here is a summary of our 2025 draft picks:
With pick 29, we really wanted an offensive tackle. Out
primary target was Armand Membou, but he went at pick 20 to Miami. We were also
looking at Tyler Booker for guard, and Josh Conerly as a developmental left
tackle. Obviously Will Campbell, Josh Simmons, and Kelvin Banks were on our
radar and we may have been open to trading up, but they were all taken inside
the top ten.
Conerly actually made it to us, but somehow, so did Luther
Burden. While we already have Terry McLaurin, an aging Amari Cooper, and an
unproven Quentin Johnston, Adam Peters proved very early on that he is willing
to take the best player available over positional need. He drafted Jer’Zhan
Newton with his second ever draft pick after Jayden Daniels when we already had
Jonathan Allen and DaRon Payne. As an organization, we don’t want to get in the
habit of passing up on top ten caliber players for day two projects, so we
drafted Luther Burden over Josh Conerly despite a significant long-term tackle
need.
Lance Zierlein has Burden as the 5th overall
player in the class, Trevor Sikkema has him on the PFF board at 8, Dane Bruglar
at 20, Daniel Jeremiah at 32, and he is 17 on the consensus board. All of them
have Conerly ranked lower. On my board of non-quarterbacks, I have Burden at 6
and Conerly at 21, so we took the player we think is significantly better
overall.
Burden will immediately take the Olamide Zaccheaus role as
primary slot receiver and a gadget player for screens. He will also be out punt
returner and may return kicks as well. He will not need to be the savior of the
offense, and should be put in favorable spots to succeed without having to
anything he did not already show he could in college during his rookie
campaign.
Our second pick at 61 was Donovan Ezeiruaku, who will
provide some much needed juice to the pass rush. He is currently 44 on our big
board, but the media analysts like him far more. Lance Zierlein has him at 24,
Jeremiah at 28, Bruglar at 30, Sikkema at 35, and he is 44 on consensus at the
time of the pick. He may be a bit undersized for our scheme, but Ezeiruaku had
14 sacks and an additional 20 QB hits in his final year at Boston College. He
has the traits to develop into a special pass rusher in the NFL.
Kevin Winston Jr. was our third selection. Though he only
started his true sophomore season and then got injured, he still declared for
the draft. In his sophomore campaign, he missed zero tackles and only allowed
ten receptions on twenty targets. He played in the box, single-high, in the
slot, and was able to do anything asked of him in that Penn State defense.
Despite his limited play time, he has proven himself as an elite run defender.
Although he may not be a high-end playmaker with only one interception and
three pass breakups in college, he should be the perfect complement to Jevon
Holland. As someone who was discussed as a future first round prospect just six
months ago, we are happy to buy the injury dip.
Our first day three selection was Nohl Williams in the fifth
round. Our cornerback room is very old, so we brought in a highly physical
developmental prospect to learn under their decades of combined experience.
Jack Kiser was our next pick at 184. He may be older than
Penei Sewell despite coming out four years later, but he is as steady as they
come. He was Notre Dame’s special teams player of the year in 2023. He has a
career 4.6% missed tackle rate, which is absolutely absurd for someone with
nearly 200 solo tackles, and he is a very intelligent run defender. If Kiser
can gain some mass, which is certainly possible, he has the potential to become
the eventual Bobby Wagner replacement as a run-stopping inside linebacker.
We had four more picks in the two-hundreds: Jalen Rivers;
Cam’Ron Jackson, Eugene Asante; Marcus Yarns. We finally addressed the
offensive line with Rivers, who is a developmental tackle or guard. Cam Jackson
is a monstrous nose tackle standing at 6’6, 342lbs. We don’t have any
two-gapping nose tackles on the roster, which was very evident against the
inside run in 2024. Hopefully Jackson can provide some immediate early down
value.
Eugene Asante is our second 24-year-old runningback selected
on day three. He is highly athletic and a great special-teamer. If he can play
situational strongside linebacker in a blitz-heavy role without being asked to
do much more, he should provide immediate value. Marcus Yarns is the homerun
hitter we need out of the backfield. He is small, but has been clocked running
over 22mph in game. He is also a smooth receiver, and should hopefully be able
to take over for Ekeler in 2026, at least in a limited role given his weight
and skill set.
UNDRAFTED FREE AGENCY
To fill in the remainder of the roster spots, we are each
given 200k in bonuses to give out to make the process fair in the context of
this simulation. As the players were announced, I adjusted my offers to total
200k:
CONTRACTS & LONG-TERM PLAN
Jayden Daniels took us to the NFC championship game in his
rookie season with a poor surrounding cast. We want to bring in as much talent
as possible over the duration of his rookie contract and aim for a Super Bowl
in 2025 - 2027. In doing so, we must make decisions in 2028 regarding this
roster. Jayden Daniels will have his fifth year option picked up, but by that
time, many of our key starters will be aging out. To maximize our window over
the next three years as well as beyond, we are structuring our contracts to
have significant dead cap values in 2028.
We cannot realistically plan that far out and much can
change, but maximizing the talent on the roster with some cap manipulation is
what the best teams regularly do. Even with current contracts structured as
such, our window remains open as long as Jayden Daniels is on this roster. For
the cap nerds like me, check out the “Contracts” tab under the Simulation
Summary Link at the top of this page. Also, check out the “Planning the Future”
tab for a hypothetical Jayden Daniels extension in 2028.
FINAL EVALUATION
We ended with $32,210,801 in cap space while using a limit
lower than what will actually be set come March. While we definitely could have
done more, we need some rollover with $265,079,054 going towards 45 players in
2026 (including seven new UDFAs). We also did not trade any future draft
capital in any capacity.
I am overall pleased with how this turned out because
improvements were made across the board. The wide receiver room went from
having only one stud and no one else to being crowded with talent, and the
defensive line and secondary saw some major improvements as well. Bringing in
some older guys past their primes, such as Tyron Smith, Stephon Gilmore, and
Amari Cooper, will also provide value by helping with all of the young talent
surrounding them. All three are the right personalities and will fit nicely with
the culture of this team as well.
While the one area that did not improve as much as I
envisioned is the offensive line, it is still a serviceable unit. The talent
simply was not available in free agency, and the board did not fall in a way
that was conducive to building the trenches.
Jayden Daniels put up a historic rookie season with barely
half of the talent that he would have around him in this situation. Each player
brought in serves a role in Kliff Kingsbury's offense, and JD could easily
build on his great start from 2024.
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